What if diesel had a second life? In this post-dieselgate period of strong electrification, the question may seem a bit iconoclastic. However, in Germany, against all expectations, diesel sales increased by 9.4% last February. A return which can be explained by the elimination of the bonus for electric vehicles, decided in December 2023. An exception? For now yes. But it could be that this fuel is experiencing the same adventure in France since Bercy also ended the bonus. This ruling only concerns electric passenger cars intended for businesses but it risks changing the market in the months to come. Especially since the plug-in hybrid (PHEV), long presented as an alternative to diesel, has not really lived up to managers' expectations.
“They are above all tax vehicles
,” says a major player in long-term rental. Above all, this technology was not used as it should have been.
“Companies have seen their fuel budgets explode because users have not played the recharging game
,” he continues. In short, faced with electric vehicles that are still too expensive, PHEVs that are too greedy, diesel could still have a card to play.
Sustainable mobility
“Companies have made their conversion to more sustainable mobility, they will not go back
,” says Guillaume Maureau, deputy general director of commerce at ALD Automotive LeasePlan. And, for now, the numbers prove him right. Over the first two months of the year, diesel on the BtoB market, excluding utility vehicles, was overtaken - by a few units - by electric cars (10,713 units compared to 10,757). A first. This decline is further reinforced by the sharp reduction in diesel supply from manufacturers.
“Diesel today is mainly intended for heavy vehicles,” observes Régis Masera, director of the Arval Mobility Observatory and Arval France Consulting. In companies, this population represents only 5% to 6% of employees who have a company car.”
And their share is contracting.
“After Covid, a large number of companies reorganized their work. They have reduced the travel of their employees and developed teleworking
,” adds Guillaume Maureau.
However, many actors no longer really know which way to turn.
“I don't have a crystal ball on future sales and we are indeed seeing questions from professionals
,” observes Igor Dumas, general manager of Leasys France. A situation that German manufacturers are approaching with a certain pragmatism. Mercedes-Benz recently announced that it was continuing to invest in thermal engines. In France alone, diesel represented almost 30% of its registrations in 2023. We also find a fairly close mix at Skoda. On the other hand, French manufacturers have now ignored this technology, although it still represents 18% of registrations at Peugeot. An impasse that costs them dearly. The brand's distributors note that the 408, a car which mainly appeals to SMEs, is not finding the expected success, particularly because of the absence of diesel. Moreover, on this subject, Stellantis has backtracked. After disappearing from the catalog, its diesel MPVs (Citroën Berlingo and Peugeot Partner), even if they are not vehicles favored by companies, are returning to the range. Proof that all-electric does not yet meet all demands.
Light hybridization
However, the return to favor of diesel seems complicated. Even if consumption levels, and therefore CO2 emissions, are very low, it remains weighed down by its image, the weight penalty and the announced (but constantly postponed) end of diesel vehicles in city centers. On the other hand, gasoline, today electrified with hybridization solutions, even - very - light (48 V), could be strongly favored by companies,
"who see in it an interesting compromise, in response to the elimination of bonus
,” recognizes Régis Masera. According to the latest results from the Arval Mobility Observatory,
“petrol and diesel remain predominant in fleet structures anticipated in 3 years, with 45% market share (+ 3 points compared to 2023) in private vehicles.”
The electric life is far from being a long, quiet river.