The
global economy
is
destined to shrink by an average of 19% by 2049
due to the
ongoing
climate crisis , but
with clear disparities between more and less rich countries
: those with low incomes and with low historical emissions of pollutants, who will suffer an income loss 61% greater than those with higher incomes and 40% greater than countries with higher emissions. This is the projection, published in the journal Nature, obtained from a model developed by the German Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam. The researchers used
local temperature and precipitation data from more than 1,600 regions of the world
, combined with
climate and income data from the past 40 years
and climate projections.
"Europe, although less affected than poorer countries and which have contributed less to greenhouse gas emissions, is an area characterized by strong diversity", Francesco Lamperti, of the School's Institute of Economics, tells ANSA Superiore Sant'Anna di Pisa: "
Mediterranean Europe
- he observes -
will suffer a greater impact than continental Europe
, and this is because the Mediterranean area is considered a hotspot for climate change, where its effects are felt more pronounced".
The results obtained by researchers coordinated by Leonie Wenz indicate that the world economy will record an income reduction of approximately 19% by 2049 compared to a scenario in which climate change is absent: a damage that is already six times greater than the costs associated with the reduction and mitigation of global warming as set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. "The merit of this study is that it demonstrates that the consequences of the climate crisis will arrive as early as 2050, therefore not in a remote future. Furthermore - adds Lamperti - the estimate is independent of the emission reduction policies that may be introduced,
the drop in income will occur in any scenario
, and this underlines the
urgency of finding adaptation policies
, often left aside in public debate."
The model indicates that
economic losses will affect all areas of the globe
, with the
exception of those at high latitudes
, such as
Alaska
,
Greenland
,
Scandinavia
and northern
Russia
, where higher temperatures will instead have a positive effect on income. The damage is attributed mainly to changes in temperature and precipitation, but the study's authors suggest that, taking into account other climate variables, the economic reduction could be more pronounced.
"These are conservative estimates", highlights Lamperti: "it is probable that the damage will be greater due to the presence of other factors, such as the rise in sea levels or extreme events not taken into consideration linked to the climatic phenomena El Niño and La Nina".