Ukrainian drones repeatedly strike Russia. Oil refineries are also being attacked. The USA does not agree.
BRUSSELS - When Vice President Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference in February, she told the Ukrainian leader something he didn't want to hear: He should refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic that U.S. officials believed that it would drive up global energy prices and trigger more aggressive Russian retaliation within Ukraine.
The request, according to officials familiar with the matter, irritated Zelensky and his closest aides, who see Kiev's series of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a grueling war with a larger and better-equipped enemy.
Zelensky rejected the recommendation because he was unsure whether it reflected the consensus of the Biden administration, these people said. But in the weeks that followed, Washington reiterated the warning in several conversations with Kyiv, including through national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who traveled to the Ukrainian capital in March, and other senior U.S. defense and intelligence officials.
However, instead of acceding to US demands, Ukraine continued its strategy and attacked a number of Russian facilities, including on April 2 the third largest Russian refinery located 800 miles from the front.
Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries: opinion differs with the USA
The incidents have further heightened tensions in strained relations as Kiev waits for Congress to pass a long-stalled $60 billion aid package as Russian forces push through Ukrainian positions on the front line. The sweeping Ukrainian attacks, which have hit more than a dozen refineries and crippled at least 10 percent of Russia's oil refining capacity since January, come as President Biden pushes his re-election campaign and global oil prices hit a six-month high.
U.S., Ukrainian and European officials spoke on condition of anonymity about the divergent views between Washington and Kiev. A spokesman for Zelensky declined to comment. Supporters of Ukraine's strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kiev's military goals. “It is my impression that the Biden administration does not want gas prices to rise in an election year,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a hearing last week.
“While Russia is attacking the Ukrainian oil, gas and energy sector, why shouldn’t the Ukrainians attack the Russian oil, gas and energy sector?” Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) asked in a separate hearing recently. U.S. officials say the reasons for their warnings are more complex than critics suspect.
Is Ukraine shooting itself in the foot? Attacks on oil refineries could harm European aid
Maintaining supplies to global energy markets to cool inflation is a priority for the government, officials admit. But it is also important for maintaining support for the Ukrainian war effort in Europe. “A rise in energy prices could dampen European support for Ukraine aid,” a senior U.S. official said.
The military usefulness of the Ukrainian bombing campaign is also questionable, according to US officials. “Ukraine is better served by targeting tactical and operational targets that can directly impact the current fight,” Austin told lawmakers. U.S. military planners are concerned that the attacks do little to weaken Russia's warfighting capabilities and have led to a massive Russian counterattack on Ukraine's power grid that is doing far more harm to Ukraine than the attacks on Russia's refineries.
“Drone strikes do not destroy entire refineries and usually not even individual facilities, but only damage them,” wrote Sergey Vakulenko, an oil industry expert, in an analysis for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The Ust-Luga and Ryazan refineries were both back in operation within weeks of the attack.”
In recent weeks, Russia has unleashed a barrage of exploding drones and missiles on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving millions without power. There are fears that the attacks could bring the Ukrainian economy to a standstill. The attacks destroyed a power plant in the Kiev region and damaged Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant and several thermal power plants.
The Russian Defense Ministry said the attacks were a direct response to Ukraine's drone strikes on refineries and other infrastructure deep within its territory. Previously, the Kremlin had focused its attacks on Ukrainian industry, which some U.S. officials said had limited impact.
US objects to attacks on oil refineries: “Neither supports nor enables”
Now Ukrainian authorities are desperate to protect their cities, raising further tensions between Kiev and the West over air defense resources. Last week, Zelensky sent his top diplomat Dmytro Kuleba to Brussels, where NATO foreign ministers gathered to celebrate the military alliance's 75th anniversary. Kuleba's main demand was that Western countries donate more Patriot batteries, a US-developed air defense system that costs more than a billion dollars.
“I'm sorry to spoil the birthday party, but who can believe that the most powerful military alliance in the world cannot find seven Patriot batteries to provide to the only country in the world that fights against ballistic attacks every day ?” Kuleba told his Western interlocutors in an uncharacteristically sharp tone.
U.S. opposition to the attacks on the refinery has angered officials in Kiev, who see the attacks as fair game given Russia's relentless attacks in Ukraine. They see the attacks as necessary to increase pressure on Russia and to make it clear to Russian society that there will be no security in Russia during the war.
They also see the attacks as necessary as their supply of artillery, which they need to attack Russian positions on the front, is shrinking. The delivery of U.S. weapons to Ukraine has slowed in recent months as the Biden administration pushes Congress to pass aid measures for Ukraine that are unpopular with a key faction of House Republicans.
Others said U.S. concerns about higher energy prices due to the refinery attacks were unfounded, as recent increases were due to OPEC-Plus production cuts and instability related to Israel's war with Hamas. “There is a small geopolitical premium on crude oil related to the violence in the Middle East,” said Tom Kloza, head of energy analysis at oil price reporting firm OPIS. “Most of the price increase is due to OPEC-Plus production cuts.”
Critics say the Biden administration's public statements about the attacks have been inconsistent and have caused confusion among Ukraine advocates in Congress and abroad. When asked about the refinery attacks this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that the Biden administration does not support Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, regardless of the target. “We neither supported nor enabled attacks by Ukraine outside its territory,” he said.
However, in his response to lawmakers last week, Austin argued that Ukraine should attack Russian air bases and other military infrastructure inside Russia rather than oil refineries.
Celeste Wallander, another senior Pentagon official, suggested that the Biden administration's primary concern is whether Ukraine attacks military or civilian targets. “If critical infrastructure is civilian targets, we have concerns because Ukraine adheres to the highest standards of compliance with the law in armed conflict, and that is one of the elements of a European democracy,” she said last week a House committee.
The US positions contrast with Washington's allies in Europe, who can hardly hide their joy over the Ukrainian campaign. “The Ukrainian people are acting in self-defense and we believe that Russia is the aggressor,” French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said when asked about the attacks during a press conference with Blinken. “Under these circumstances there is little else to say. I think you understood me.”
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has also defended Ukraine's right to attack Russian energy targets. “It is not the case that Russia limits itself to hitting only military targets or attacking only at the front. It is attacking all over Ukraine,” he told the
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We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on April 15, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.