Germany is facing a growing threat. Prof. Dr. Joachim Krause explains the danger posed by Russian spies.
Munich – Prof. Dr. Joachim Krause is founder and director emeritus of the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University. He views the increasing Russian actions in and against Germany with concern.
How surprising were the arrests to you?
You already expect something like that. There have always been minor incidents near American facilities, but this is already frightening. The fact that it is Germans, German-Russians, who are prepared to provide espionage services for a Russian war is already a scandal.
Does sabotage, which was the goal here, represent the greatest danger in the entire hybrid threat?
In the Russian understanding of war, there are three stages of war: Political war, which is non-violent but aims to divide and weaken a society. The hybrid war, where violence is used, but covertly. And then open warfare. So far we in Germany have largely been an object of political warfare. But this case shows that Russia is slowly moving towards attacking us using hybrid, subliminal means. This is very worrying because it shows that the people who make politics in Russia are becoming more and more crazy.
Expert makes it clear: Russian spies on military filings an act of war
Even more unscrupulous?
More and more unscrupulous, more and more willing to take risks. Attacks by Russian irregulars on American military facilities are actually an act of war, that must be made very clear. If it hadn't been for the back and forth in the USA about military aid for Ukraine, the Russians wouldn't have dared to do it at all. That worries me.
Are there any means that Russia particularly likes to use?
We have already had assassination attempts here. There can also be attacks on politicians. If you take this from the Ukrainian experience, it is definitely a pattern. And then of course the infrastructure, especially the maritime one such as submarine cables and pipelines, is at risk. We had a strange event last fall when a ship owned by a Russian company and flying a Chinese flag dragged an anchor about seven kilometers across the seabed, destroying a gas pipeline and a data cable. These are typical hybrid attacks. And the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines is also part of it.
Danger from Russia of hybrid warfare: sabotage and espionage
How can you defend yourself against challenges such as cyberattacks, disinformation or refugees being sent in thousands?
The Finns are reacting with pretty tough measures, with pushbacks against refugees. The Poles also did the same on their border with Belarus. When it comes to the security of pipelines or cables, NATO has to take action. You have to shadow the suspicious ships that are there day and night and also close certain corridors to military or dubious civilian traffic. There is no other way.
Do you think Germany is prepared?
Not particularly. Although when I hear that today these people were arrested at an early stage, it calms me down a bit. But you don't know where this tip came from. The question is whether there aren't more attempts. A year ago, for example, we had an attack on a very special railway cable duct, which led to trains no longer running in entire regions. This was also a sign of hybrid warfare.
Putin targets Germany and France: attacks through disinformation
Is Germany a key target for Putin? As an economic power, but also as a country in which there are still strong pro-Russian voices?
For him, Germany and France are the two core countries where points need to be scored. However, with such attacks he does not help to increase sympathy for him. On the contrary, the determination not to put up with this is growing here too. I just hope that this will be accepted in politics and not be forgotten after a few weeks, as in the past. Unfortunately, this is often the case with us.
Are we to expect increased attacks in the run-up to the upcoming elections – EU Parliament, state parliaments in the East?
Yes. You can already see the many troll attacks on social media where you think they are all people, when in fact they are just addresses that reinforce each other. This disinformation is already a nasty problem. They can only be tackled by working with counter-information and educating people, or by making the operators more responsible. The legislature can still do a lot
Interview: Marc Beyer