Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel over the weekend was a revolutionary escalation that requires a rethink by Israel and its most important ally, the United States.
I call it "the
three-state solution
."
It begins with the recognition that there
is probably no hope
for a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the Israel-Iran conflict without a
change of leadership
in Tehran, Jerusalem and Ramallah.
Starting with Tehran:
I am not in favor of any Western attempt to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran from without, but I pray that one day the Iranian people will do so
from within.
"This region will not see any meaningful peace or stability while this current government is in power in Tehran," explained Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Because Iran's vast resources and training are funding the 5% of fanatics who are making life hell for the 95% of Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians, Yemenis and Iraqis who just want to live in peace.
To paraphrase
Shimon Peres
on the prospects for change in Iran, the good news is that there is light at the end of that tunnel. The bad news is that there is no tunnel today.”
Considering how many times Iranians have challenged his theocratic rule only to be crushed by his iron fist, it is clear that the will is there.
We just have to hope they find a way soon.
Because Iran and Israel were once natural allies:
the two main
non-Arab
powers in the Middle East.
That changed with the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
He established a regime in Tehran that prioritized the spread of his Islamic ideology (and the destruction of the Jewish State of Israel) over the well-being of Iranians.
If Iran were simply a normal state that prioritized the advancement of its own people over the destruction of another, it would be a huge change for the region.
It was good to see that the Tehran regime didn't get much of a popularity boost in the region by firing more than
300 drones and missiles
at Israel on Saturday, almost all of which were intercepted or crashed before doing any damage.
In fact, social media accounts in the Arab world have been rife with
jokes
ridiculing the Iranian regime for basically being 0 out of 300 and suggesting that the only people who died did so for laughs.
When I say we need regime change in Ramallah, I am referring to the corrupt and inept Palestinian Authority, headed by
88-year-old
Mahmoud Abbas .
Why is the Palestinian Authority so important?
Because it still embraces living in peace with Israel and the Oslo framework intended to lead to two states for two indigenous peoples.
That is what makes a strong Palestinian Authority the cornerstone of any Palestinian-Israeli peace and of a sustainable Arab-Israeli-Western alliance to deter or confront Iran.
Look
So if today we want to be
pro-Palestinian
(in addition to being pro-Israel, pro-US, pro-Saudi, pro-Israel, pro-Abraham Accords, or an anti-Iran regime), the most significant thing we can push for is to demonstrate for or volunteer to contribute. the transformation of the Palestinian Authority into an effective government institution, professionally led, non-corrupt and accountable to donors.
That kind of Palestinian Authority can be a partner for a two-state solution with Israel and replace Israeli forces, along with friendly Arab armies, and
govern the Gaza Strip
instead of pro-Iranian, Israel-hating Hamas. if possible. dismantled.
Merit
Overall, I give the Biden team high marks for the job they have done responding to the tremendously tense and complex war between Israel and Hamas and, over the weekend, helping Israel deal with the Iranian missile attack.
However, a key mistake he has made was
remaining passive
while Abbas in March named a “new” government led by a former crony as prime minister, businessman
Muhammad Mustafa.
This was not the government of change that many Palestinians expected, that moderate Arabs demanded, and that the Palestinian people so badly needed.
As anyone who has reported from the West Bank knows, there is plenty of leadership talent among Palestinians there, not to mention abroad:
highly educated and capable men and women. But very few have been elected to the Palestinian Authority, which needs the best and brightest Palestinians at this key moment.
Countries like the
United Arab Emirates
are willing to step in and advise, train and fund a transforming Palestinian Authority, and even support it in Gaza with armed forces, but that won't happen until Abbas steps down.
The authority needs a proven, non-corrupt institution builder in the mold of former Prime Minister
Salam Fayyad,
the greatest model of Palestinian leadership of all time.
Which explains why we also need a change of leadership in Israel today.
No one has done more to thwart and prevent the emergence of an effective Palestinian Authority than Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu
, who spent years ensuring that Hamas had enough resources from
Qatar
to remain in power in Gaza and prevent the creation of a unified Palestinian body. of decision making. – and, at the same time, denigrate the Palestinian Authority for every flaw it had.
Netanyahu never praised the authority for sticking to non-violence (unlike Hamas) and for the way its security services helped Israel prevent the West Bank from exploding despite the huge expansion of Israeli settlements.
Netanyahu's approach was shameful and, as we now see, not in Israel's interest.
Many Palestinians, and their supporters abroad, say today:
"Well, if Israel says there is no difference between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, maybe we should all just be with Hamas."
Why does this benefit Israel?
Furthermore, in October, Israel invaded Gaza under Netanyahu's leadership with no
exit strategy
, no plan for the next day, and no Palestinian partner who can govern Gaza, along with friendly Arab armies, if Israel can overthrow the Hamas government. .
Netanyahu will not partner with the Palestinian Authority because he is on trial for corruption and needs to retain his position to reach a plea deal, if convicted.
The only way to do this is to rely on the far-right Jewish
supremacist
and settler parties in his coalition, who refuse to see the Palestinian Authority become an effective governing body because that would mean it is a legitimate partner for a peace settlement. two states. That would force Israel to give up all or part of
the West Bank.
This is not only incredibly dangerous for Israel in terms of the future of Gaza, but also (now it can be clearly seen) for the confrontation with Iran, which is reaching a whole new level.
Israel, as was demonstrated over the weekend, would not have been able to effectively confront Iran's missile attack without a regional alliance, without close coordination with Jordan and the Arab Gulf States, which provided early warning detection and, in In the case of Jordan, Iranian missiles were shot down and drones are heading towards Israel.
Israel was also assisted by the American
,
British and French
air forces
, and the
American Navy
.
Attention, attention, attention:
It is a complete fantasy to believe that the United States, Jordan and Israel's Arab and NATO allies will be able to maintain a long confrontation with Iran - openly defending Israel - if Israel has a government determined to annex the West Bank and populate all its sectors with settlements, as well as to remain in Gaza without any legitimate Palestinian partner.
Israel's popularity has been eroding throughout the Western world since October 7, not to mention the Muslim Arab world.
The support Israel gained last weekend against Iran is not sustainable unless Israel demonstrates a
change of attitude
toward the Palestinian Authority and plans an exit from Gaza.
But let's fantasize in a different direction for a moment.
Imagine if Israel announced tomorrow a freeze on new settlements, its willingness to transfer more governance and security responsibilities to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Gaza (as soon as it has developed the capacity), and its willingness to invite the United States, the Emirates United Arabs and Saudi Arabia to help bring the Palestinian Authority to that level and fund its institutions, what would happen immediately?
Both Iran and Hamas would be
deflated
, more than any Israeli missile strike could achieve.
“My God,” Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Hamas would say, “that's a disaster.
It means that we cannot continue to easily delegitimize Israel in the West.
It means that the conditions have been created for the security treaty between the United States, Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia.
And it means that Arab governments will be able to collaborate much more comfortably and openly with Israel against Iran and its proxies.
"That's a disaster."
It would also mean that Iran could no longer present itself as the great defender of the Palestinian cause, a pose that simply disguises its venomous desire to destroy the Jewish state and diverts attention from the crushing of its own people, particularly women and girls and their aspirations. democratic.
At the same time, in the United States and Western capitals, collaboration with Israel would no longer be so
politically toxic.
And in
Russia and China,
their collaboration with Iran would seem as cynical as it is: pro-Hamas, not pro-Palestinian.
Yes, I can assure you: nothing could benefit Israel more from a strategic point of view.
But that cannot and will not happen while Netanyahu is in power.
Chance
We are in a chaotic time in the Middle East right now.
The only thing I know for sure is that an effective, credible and legitimate Palestinian Authority is the cornerstone of any decent outcome:
a sustainable two-state solution, a sustainable Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran, a sustainable US-NATO Middle East policy to protect a democratic Israel from theocratic Tehran, and a sustainable removal of the “Palestinian charter” from the hands of Iran.
But for them to occur, leadership transformations will be necessary in Tehran, Ramallah and Jerusalem (and not in Washington).
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