Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel reflects a first reformulation of the strategic balance in the Middle East. On the one hand, Israel has demonstrated that it has a coalition of allies actively committed to the defense and security of its territory.
On the other hand, Tehran seems to have initiated a new offensive tactical phase with direct action with drones and cruise missiles in addition to the covert operations of the extensive network of terrorist proxies that responds to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (Pasdarán in Farsi) which has, in turn, with a significant land, air and maritime military structure. Nuclear, ballistic missile, and drone programs, as well as the control of military intelligence satellites, also respond to the paramilitary organization.
The immediate future of the conflict is uncertain although it should not be ruled out that the circumstances encourage a precarious impasse. However, it is difficult to imagine a diplomatic response that would diminish the shadow war through ground, air and cyber attacks.
Also, there could be a lasting de-escalation as long as Iran continues to promote terrorist actions, retains the capacity to enrich uranium in the nuclear program and keeps new generations of ballistic missiles in development.
In this context, there is still a latent terrorist risk anywhere in the world. Pasdaran's link with radicalized Muslim groups is promoted by the Quds Force (Jerusalem in Arabic), which finances terrorism as a state tool. The United States considered it a sponsor of terrorism in 2007, Canada in 2012, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, among others, in 2018. The European Union, at the initiative of the European Parliament, would insert the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on the list of terrorist organizations. .
It is time for Argentina to do the same and include in particular the Quds Force in the registry of entities linked to terrorism that depends on the Ministry of Justice (RePET, created in 2019). RePET has already incorporated Hezbollah under responsibility for the 1994 terrorist attack.
The same decision would have to be adopted with the Quds Force, which is where, ultimately, the criminal execution order against the AMIA came from. The relationship between the Quds Force and Hezbollah has been determined by the Argentine Justice. So much so, that Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezai, commanders of the Revolutionary Guard and former relevant members of the Quds Force, are in the RePET for being alleged intellectual authors of the attack on the AMIA.
Iran's serious attack against Israel forces us to keep Iran's penetration into Latin America under observation. The Iranian president's tour in mid-2023 appears to have forged ties in the region that go beyond diplomatic purposes.
The clearest example is Bolivia, the only one of the ALBA countries that has broken diplomatic relations with Israel and that has concluded sensitive agreements with Iran on defense and border control technology. Also worthy of attention are Tehran's eleven embassies in the region and the numerous cultural and religious centers, where diplomats who are members of the Quds Force are accredited.
Argentina, which maintains a primary diplomatic relationship with Israel, which has suffered terrorist aggression on two occasions and has a historical position of condemnation of international terrorism, should update the RePET to reduce the risk that terrorist proxies will attack South America again. South. The fight to eradicate terrorism and the military offensives promoted by the Iranian theocracy require that diplomacy not lose relevance and be able to stop an eventual spiral of violence with global consequences.
Roberto García Moritán is a diplomat, former vice chancellor.