Did cloud seeding trigger extreme rainfall in Dubai? Experts agree: the method is not capable of this. You have another suspicion.
Dubai – The heavy rain that fell on Dubai on April 16th raises suspicions: it must have been so-called “cloud seeding”. But experts don't think much of this theory - for very different reasons. “Cloud seeding is about increasing precipitation from vulnerable clouds,” explains Edward Gryspeerdt (Imperial College London). Not all clouds are suitable for this. “You can’t create a cloud or rain out of nothing,” emphasizes the expert. “You need a cloud that is already on the verge of forming rain and that you can then 'flip' into rain.”
The expert further emphasizes that it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of cloud seeding, i.e. seeding a cloud that then rains down: “Once you seed a cloud, you don't know whether it wouldn't have rained anyway. Since the vaccinated clouds were already close to rain, it is difficult to determine what effect the vaccination had.” Giles Harrison from the University of Reading sees it similarly. He stressed that while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is doing cloud seeding, there is a big difference between what the method can achieve and Dubai's heavy rain.
Heavy rains in Dubai: Experts do not assume cloud seeding
“The processes involved are so disparate in scale that I can't see how the rain and cloud seeding could be related,” emphasizes Harrison. “Furthermore, given the forecast of heavy rain, there would be no reason to undertake cloud seeding under these circumstances.” Instead, the scientist points in a different direction: “It has long been expected that an increase in atmospheric moisture with a warmer climate will lead to more extreme precipitation events .”
Other experts also suspect climate change as the culprit. The suggestion that the Dubai rains could be linked to cloud seeding is “a distraction from the real story,” says John Marsham (University of Leeds) and explains what he means: “We know that man-made climate change extreme rainfall increased. This is a well-understood physical fact, as warm air contains more water." Marsham is certain: "Any possible effect of cloud seeding would be tiny under the circumstances of Dubai." In addition, weather models had shown the risk of heavy rainfall in the previous days.
Heavy rain in Dubai: “We have to talk about climate change”
Friederike Otto (Imperial College London) also takes the same line: “If we talk about heavy rainfall, we have to talk about climate change. Focusing on cloud seeding is misleading.” Cloud seeding, a geoengineering method, cannot create clouds out of nothing. “Even if cloud seeding had caused the clouds around Dubai to shed water, the atmosphere would likely have allowed more water to form clouds beforehand due to climate change,” Otto continued.
The researcher warns: “If people continue to burn oil, gas and coal, the climate will continue to warm, precipitation will continue to increase and people will continue to lose their lives in floods.” However, other experts also warn of “weather wars”. Related to cloud seeding.
Heavy rains in Dubai are linked to a weather system
Meteorologist Suzanne Gray (University of Reading) explains the Dubai rain phenomenon with a “mesoscale convective system” (MCS), which occurs when many individual thunderstorms combine to form a single large cloud shield and form a large area of heavy rainfall. “They are not rare events for the Middle East,” emphasizes the scientist. On the contrary: a recently published study would show that the weather events most often occur in March and April.
An event in March 2016 dropped more than 240 millimeters of rain over Dubai in just a few hours - and was comparable to current rainfall. “These intense rainfall events can become more extreme due to climate change,” says Maarten Ambaum (University of Reading). “Climate scientists have been warning for many years that such extreme events will become more likely in a warmer climate, and indeed we are now seeing this around us.”
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