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Alexander Zverev is in the semi-finals of the US Open for the first time
Photo: Seth Wenig / AP
The good news first: Alexander Zverev is the first German since 1995 to have reached the semi-finals of the US Open.
The 23-year-old is in the semifinals of a Grand Slam tournament for the second time this year.
Zverev has so far been able to save energy in New York, in none of his five games he had to go the full distance, his upcoming opponent - the Spaniard Pablo Carreño Busta (10 p.m. CEST, live ticker at SPIEGEL.de) - stood in the quarter-finals for more than four hours on the court and is outside the top 25 in the world rankings.
A lot speaks for Zverev.
Also the betting odds.
But it's not that easy.
Zverev has had a turbulent year.
As is so often the case, it was marked by many ups and downs.
The semi-final at the Australian Open in the pre-Corona period was already considered a breakthrough on the big stage.
Finally - so it was said - the longed-for success in one of the four big tournaments.
Then came the month-long pandemic break.
The hamburger used this for dropouts off the pitch.
First the participation in the controversial Adriatic tour by Novak Djokovic, then the party photos in southern France.
Instead of explaining himself, he withdrew.
At the tournament in Berlin he even decided not to start.
Zverev's greatest weakness remains his own serve
Points have been played again since August.
Since then, Zverev has only been writing sporting headlines, negative and positive.
First the rather embarrassing end against Andy Murray at the Masters in Cincinnati, now the march into the semi-finals of the US Open.
At the press conferences, Zverev never tires of emphasizing that he still sees "potential for improvement" in his game.
In fact, the world number seven has to improve significantly if he wants to win the tournament in New York.
Zverev's biggest weakness remains the second serve.
In his five encounters he made 45 double faults, Carreño Busta only made nine.
Tall professionals often live from their serve.
In the case of Zverev (1.98 meters), its own service has long been a major construction site.
Constancy and stability are also not yet evident.
Against Borna Coric, he lost the first set in just 25 minutes before he turned up and won in four rounds.
Zverev benefits from the absence of many stars.
Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka did not travel to the US metropolis, Djokovic said goodbye in the round of 16 after an unprecedented scandal.
The German moved up on the seeding list and was lucky.
His previous opponents - Kevin Anderson (No. 117), Brandon Nakashima (No. 223), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (No. 99), Adrian Mannarino (No. 39 and Borna Coric (No. 32) - were either out of shape or still very young and inexperienced.
Martina Navratilova did not miss this either.
The 18-time Grand Slam winner, who works as an expert for Amazon Prime, claimed after the semi-finals that Zverev couldn't win a major in his current condition.
"You don't beat top players that way because they will have a different motivation and are too good for that," said Navratilova.
Zverev countered and referred to his statistics against big players.
He had a positive record against Federer (4: 3), and he had also beaten Djokovic several times in finals.
Against Carreño Busta, Zverev is actually a favorite.
That would change in a possible final.
There the German could meet the winner of the game between Dominic Thiem (Austria) and Daniil Medvedev (Russia).
Both Thiem and Medvedev, who has not yet lost a set in the course of the tournament, were already considered candidates for the title alongside Djokovic.
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Dominic Thiem has already played in three Grand Slam finals
Photo: Frank Franklin II / AP
Medvedev acts almost flawlessly from the baseline and can always rely on his strong serve.
Thiem plays extremely powerful and is one of the fittest players on the tour.
In the direct duel with Zverev, the Austrian leads 7-2.
Predicting a winner is particularly difficult this year.
Only one thing is already certain: For the first time after 13 Grand Slam tournaments, the champion will not be called Federer, Djokovic or Nadal.
The chance for Zverev is bigger than ever.
Does he use it?
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