Before the derby against Dortmund: What a Schalke relegation would mean for the Bundesliga

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Schalke fans: won't you see them in the Bundesliga in the future?

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Tim Rehbein / RHR-FOTO / Pool / imago images

Hans-Joachim Watzke has a pronounced dislike of FC Schalke 04. Borussia Dortmund's club identity includes rivalry with its neighbors, and the BVB managing director has internalized that.

Before the derby in the evening (6.30 p.m. / live ticker SPIEGEL.de, TV: Sky), Watzke told the Funke media group: "A Bundesliga without Hamburger SV is bad enough, a Bundesliga without Schalke would be just as undesirable."

At least after the game, Watzke will begin to keep their fingers crossed for their rivals.

Otherwise it could have been the last derby between Schalke and BVB in the Bundesliga for the time being.

S04 is in last place in the table with nine points and is already nine points behind the relegation place.

Relegation is becoming more and more likely.

Alexander Jobst, Schalke board member, called this scenario "absolutely realistic" on Thursday at a digital meeting with club members.

That would be a disaster for the club.

He already depressed 200 million euros in debt.

But what would that actually mean for the Bundesliga?

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Bonjour tristesse: The Schalke mascot in the stadium without fans

Photo: Roger Petzsche / Picture Point / Pool / Kirchner-Media / imgo images

"For the attractiveness of the league, Schalke's relegation would be a drama," said Watzke to the "kicker".

And there are numbers that speak for this thesis.

In a representative survey by the Allensbach market research institute, it was found that a good 24 million out of 71 million Germans aged 14 and over are interested in FC Schalke 04, 7.44 million even "particularly".

Only FC Bayern and Borussia Dortmund achieved higher values.

The Allensbach Institute has also collected values ​​for the second division.

It is noticeable that the numbers at Hamburger SV are only slightly smaller than those at FC Schalke 04.

If you look at the number of members, Schalke is a Bundesliga giant: the club has 155,000 members, only FC Bayern is bigger (293,000).

One might think that the sporting desolate situation of Schalke leads to the fact that the audience turns away.

But the opposite seems to be the case, as the industry service meedia.de reported in response to a request from SPIEGEL: »In the current season, it looks as if the number of viewers for the Schalke games on Sky is higher than in previous seasons.

Interest in the club has even increased - possibly because of the dramatically exciting situation, «says meedia.de.

Strong TV ratings for a weak team

Schalke emotionalises people, because of Schalke they switch on their television, even if the team often loses.

According to the broadcasting broadcaster Sky, around 1.3 million people watched the derby against Dortmund in the first round - also at 6.30 p.m. on Saturday.

Last Saturday - also a 6.30 p.m. game - there were almost 900,000 spectators at the Schalke game against 1. FC Union Berlin.

Strong odds for a weak team.

And these odds have value.

The lifeline of the Bundesliga and second division clubs is television income.

In other words, the money they get from the broadcasters so that they can broadcast their games exclusively or for secondary use.

The TV money - currently 1.2 billion euros per season - make up the largest source of income for the clubs.

If the league is full of clubs that attract a lot of audience interest, the marketing rights are more valuable.

The marketer of these rights is the German Football League (DFL), the interest group for all 36 first and second division clubs.

As managing director of the DFL, Andreas Rettig experienced two seasons in which HSV was threatened with relegation.

In May 2015, a few months after Rettig had left, the Hamburgers saved themselves for the second time in a row in the relegation.

»There were representatives of the DFL who, for purely economic reasons, were happy that HSV stayed there.

That is understandable from their point of view, "said Rettig to SPIEGEL.

The DFL markets the Bundesliga through full stadiums, enthusiastic fans and their choreographies as well as the tradition of the clubs and the sporting performance.

Apart from high quality football, Schalke can still serve with anything.

If Schalke were relegated, the club would remain in the DFL's marketing portfolio as a second division team, but the TV stations are mainly interested in the Bundesliga.

The great sums are paid for them.

Icon: enlarge Photo: Jürgen Fromme / firo Sportphoto / pool / / Kirchner-Media / imago images

Another look at the ratings, which can be an indication of the clubs' marketing values: Past experience shows that the Bundesliga ratings at Sky remained stable, although HSV and 1. FC Köln were relegated, while 1. FC did Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf rose.

The odds in the second division, however, have risen.

Nuremberg and Düsseldorf are traditional clubs with a large following.

But what happens if Schalke should now relegate, instead Kiel or Fürth went up?

Both are currently third and fourth in the second division, and both are rather small clubs with a small following.

Games with them are of less marketing value.

Nothing would happen immediately.

The DFL grants TV rights every four years - most recently in December 2020 for the period from summer 2021 to summer 2025. Due to the pandemic, media revenues have declined slightly.

Instead of 1.2 billion euros, there will be only 1.1 billion euros per season in the future.

But in the long term, problems for the DFL would threaten in the case described.

Heribert Bruchhagen, former CEO of Eintracht Frankfurt, who has also worked for HSV, Schalke and DFL, believes that the current TV fund "with the prospect of a Bundesliga without Schalke could have been even more".

A year or two without Schalke, I can somehow cope with that.

But: "In the long run, clubs like Schalke and HSV are indispensable for the Bundesliga," says Bruchhagen.

A Schalke descent would not have direct consequences for the DFL in terms of TV revenues, but it could have negative effects in the long term.

Then when Schalke does not rise again quickly.

Because the next TV rights allocation will follow.

The league would be more attractive if Schalke were there.

Hans-Joachim Watzke will keep his fingers crossed.

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