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Markus Eisenbichler flies in Oberstdorf - but where?
Photo:
Georg Hochmuth / dpa
The Nordic World Ski Championships in Oberstdorf are entering the final weekend.
In ski jumping, the men's competitions are on the large hill, both in the individual on Friday and in the team on Saturday, the German Ski Association is hoping for a medal - especially after the Corona-related end for top favorite Halvor Granerud.
The women celebrated their World Cup premiere on the large hill with a high-class competition.
Olympic champion Maren Lundby was crowned first world champion with two strong jumps.
It was a milestone for a sport that had been dominated by German jumpers for years.
In a data analysis, SPIEGEL shows who the most successful athletes in World Cup history were and at what age gold was most often won.
World championships in ski jumping have existed since 1924. Women were only admitted in 2009, however, in Liberec in the Czech Republic the first female world champion was chosen from the normal hill.
The most successful jumper in its young history is the German Carina Vogt.
She had just returned to the World Cup a few weeks before the World Cup at home and had hoped a little to build on her successful record at major events.
But the preparation time was not sufficient, on the normal hill she landed in 30th place and was then no longer nominated by national coach Andreas Bauer.
Vogt also missed the World Cup premiere on the large hill.
For the 29-year-old Vogt, the priority is to further advance her sport in the years to come.
"But you shouldn't forget that we've made a lot of progress in recent years," Vogt said in an interview with SPIEGEL.
»Two years ago at the World Championships there was a team competition for the first time, now the large hill is being added.
It's moving forward. "
The data depth is much greater for male ski jumpers.
Birger Ruud is the name of the undefeated leader of the most successful ski jumpers.
The Norwegian, who died in 1998, won five gold medals and two silver medals.
From 1931 to 1937 Ruud dominated the world of ski jumping, at that time people only jumped from the large hill.
Just behind Ruud are Adam Malysz and Jens Weißflog, who won his three world championship titles for the GDR and two bronze medals after the fall of the Wall.
In 1982 the international ski federation FIS introduced team jumping at world championships.
One nation dominates here: Austria.
The Austrian jumpers were able to win a total of nine world championship titles, four silver and five bronze medals in the team competition on the normal and large hill.
This puts them ahead of Team Finland and Team Norway, who have seven and three world championship titles respectively.
A little behind - but with a total of 10 podium places, including three world championship titles - Team Germany follows in fourth place.
For Granerud, the World Cup is over after his positive Corona test.
Thanks to his results in the World Cup, the Norwegian was considered the top favorite for the gold medal on the large hill on Friday (5 p.m.).
Whereby Granerud was not able to convince in the previous major events as in the rest of the season.
However, the 24-year-old may be doubly annoyed about the missed chance to win his first individual medal at a world championship.
Because the statistics say that the chances of victory decrease with increasing age and that ski jumpers between 22 and 25 years are most successful.
The best age to win a medal at a World Cup seems to be 23 years old.
Towards the end of 20, however, the chances of medals decrease: in the history of the World Cup, only 20 jumpers over the age of 27 have won a gold medal.
Markus Eisenbichler won the world championship title on the large hill in Seefeld two years ago.
On paper he is now again a promising candidate for a medal.
However, the statistics do not speak for Eisenbichler: He will be 30 years old in April.
So far there have only been six world champions older than 29 in the history of the World Cup.
Is that a bad omen for the German?
In Oberstdorf, Piotr Zyla showed how unimportant age can be when the conditions and the form are right.
The Pole won the title on the normal hill a few days ago at the age of 34, making him the oldest world champion since 1924.
A similar picture emerges for women: at a world championship so far no female ski jumper who was older than 27 has won a gold medal - like Daniela Iraschko-Stolz 2011 in Oslo, who is still active today.
The youngest world champion is Sarah Hendrickson.
At the age of 18, the American won the 2013 world championship in Predazzo, Italy.
Because of the small depth of data, the numbers of World Cup competitions were also used for the analysis of the age distribution for women.
This shows that jumpers aged 23 were also the most successful.
And which nations dominate ski jumping at world championships?
Measured by the medals won, Germany can call itself the most successful ski jumping nation among women.
But the World Cup in Oberstdorf showed that other countries are catching up.
"We lack the natural performance dynamics," said national coach Andreas Bauer to SPIEGEL even before the World Cup.
»In Austria, Norway or Slovenia there is a younger generation that is jumping to the top in the World Cup.
In Germany it looks bad right now. "
When it comes to men, one nation stands out: Norway.
With a total of 24 gold medals, 20 silver medals and 22 bronze medals, the Norwegian athletes have by far won the most medals at a world championship since 1924.
The Norwegians particularly dominated the early competitions on the large hill - twelve of the total of 20 world championship titles date from before the Second World War.
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