Gareth Bale at the EM 2016 (in Lille): Sensational with Wales in the semifinals
Photo: Carl Recine / REUTERS
1st thesis: The big ones are tired
Do you know who is going to be the defending champion in the European Championship that starts in the evening?
Granted, it wasn't difficult.
The tears of Cristiano Ronaldo, you could think of that.
But do you remember how Portugal won the title in 2016?
Not a single victory was achieved in the group stage at the time.
With three draws, the team made it into the round of 16 as one of the best third-placed in the group.
The example makes it clear what the EM is all about since the increase in the number of participants to 24 teams: Not losing can bring a team very far.
Don't lose - even the underdogs can do that at this European Championship.
Almost all teams are well organized on the defensive, many play with a five-man chain in defense.
Scoring goals becomes complicated.
There is also a possible disadvantage for the top nations: The consequences of the corona pandemic hit them harder.
Their players started last season with a shortened summer break.
The schedule was tightly timed.
Many national players, especially those whose club teams made it far in the European Cup, will be tired.
That doesn't mean that France will fail in the preliminary round and that North Macedonia will become European champions.
But we can expect surprises.
Games that are closer than expected.
An outsider who made it to the semi-finals;
the unexpected failure of a great football nation.
It could be a European Championship of the football midgets.
Danial Montazeri
2nd thesis: Turkey is in the semi-finals
Keyword surprising outsiders: What Wales achieved in 2016, the sensational march to the semi-finals, this time Turkey could succeed.
Why?
Well, look at the recent results of veteran coach Şenol Güneş's team: they beat France 2-0 in qualifying (and drew in the second leg), and beat the Netherlands 4-2 in March.
Turkey has already proven that it can annoy the big guys.
In addition, there are captain and striker Burak Yilmaz (OSC Lille), playmaker and free-kick maestro Hakan Çalhanoğlu (AC Milan) or the all-rounder in central defense, Çağlar Söyüncü (Leicester City), after strong seasons at the club with a lot of self-confidence for the European Championship.
That should be enough to get into the top two in surprise bag group A with Italy, Wales and Switzerland.
If Turkey succeeds, a relatively easy path awaits in the knockout phase: The two best teams in the »death group« F with Portugal, France, Germany and Hungary could not be played before the semifinals.
And even if the Turkish defense is still a bit fickle: The team from Güneş, who already led Turkey to third place at the 2002 World Cup, can be expected to deliver such a surprise.
Cedric Voigt
3rd thesis: England's Bellingham has what it takes to be a surprise player
Jude Bellingham will come of age on June 29th, the day of his 18th birthday. Anyone who has ever seen the young Englishman play can hardly believe it. Bellingham looks a lot older on the pitch. He may have been the youngest professional on the field last season at BVB, he played like an old hand. In the central midfield he sets the pace, Bellingham usually manages without mistakes and is not impressed by opponents or competition. In the Champions League against Manchester City it was he who kept BVB in the game for a long time, afterwards even the opposing coach Pep Guardiola was deeply impressed.
The amazement will also continue at the EM.
June 29th is not only Bellingham's birthday, it is also the eighth-finals date for England should they win their group against Croatia, the Czech Republic and Scotland.
It's not entirely certain that Bellingham will be in the English starting line-up, but the chances are good.
In the important test against Austria he played a full 90 minutes.
National coach Gareth Southgate seems to entrust him with the role at the center of the English game, and that he can do so with confidence, Bellingham has proven at BVB.
He has everything to be the surprising and outstanding player of this tournament.
Jan Göbel
4th thesis: The real EM feeling will come
A non-representative survey in the Freundeskreis showed: Nobody is really looking forward to the European Championship. Some do not think it is a good idea to have a tournament held in multiple countries. Others don't know who is playing at all. Rúben Dias from Germany's opponent Portugal, the Premier League player of the season? Never heard. As far as the starting point, so little anticipation. But the mood will soon brighten.
It has become sunnier, warmer, the progress in vaccination is noticeable and the incidences are falling across Europe. It pulls people out. The restaurants are full. And whoever sits there in the coming weeks will come into contact with the EM. There will be televisions on the terraces. And then: real EM feeling. Surprising twists and turns in the game, an underdog who trumps, shared cheers, during the 90 minutes football still has the potential of a campfire.
Before and after, football may be dirty, dominated by officials who love the game less than its economic power.
But the 90 minutes themselves, plus extra time and penalty shootouts - which are also accompanied by fan chants,
real
fan chants in the stadium - this thrill distracts from everything that annoys everyday life.
A bit of normalcy is returning, which many people long for and need.
It will be an atmospheric European championship.
Jan Göbel
5th thesis: Chaos reigns on the EM courts - and that is wonderful
There are states that you do not wish for in your own life, but when you can look at them elsewhere, it is fascinating and sometimes exhilarating from a distance.
Dance, for example.
Or a drug frenzy.
Or chaos.
That's why I'm looking forward to the European Championships, tournaments like this are chaotic on the pitch. Of course not comparable to a regional class kick, but compared to the football that you normally watch - Bundesliga, Premier League, Champions League - games at World and European Championships are often much wilder, more uncontrolled, in other words: more chaotic.
There are no bad footballers at a European Championship, there are even a lot of very good footballers. But they usually train every day, for example with Pep Guardiola, and breathe his game idea. And then they come to their national team and play football with teammates who are otherwise coached by Jürgen Klopp, for example. Modern professionals are used to adapting to new systems and variants again and again, but these one or two months around a tournament are an extreme situation even for them. Like when a group of samba dancers and a couple of rumba experts suddenly have to do a tango together.
And as nice as it can be to watch a club team that internalizes every move and has an answer to every trick by the opponent, it is just as exciting to watch all these world-class players improvise, make individual performances, make mistakes. If that happens at the highest level, such an EM can be a real frenzy.
Lukas Rilke
