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Marcus Rashford is annoyed by the penalty he missed
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Carl Recine / AP
There was that one moment towards the end of the European Championship final when it actually seemed like football was about to come home. As if England could win another big tournament after 55 years. Italy's Andrea Belotti had wanted to place his penalty on the bottom right, Jordan Pickford had guessed the corner and saved the ball. The next shot then thundered Harry Maguire into the corner with confidence. England led 2-1 on penalties against Italy.
Disenchantment followed at Wembley. Marcus Rashford, 23 years old, Jadon Sancho, 21 years, Bukayo Saka, 19 years: The English youngsters failed one after the other from the point. Rashford and Sancho had come on specifically for the penalty shoot-out, Saka came into the game in the middle of the second half and was designated the final shooter by national coach Gareth Southgate. Jack Grealish, six years older than him, had agreed, but Southgate trusted Saka. "That decision was entirely up to me," the coach explained later.
Geir Jordet can partially understand Southgate's decisions. Jordet is a professor of psychology and teaches at the Norwegian Sport University in Oslo. For five years he has researched the psychology of penalty kicks, examining all penalty shoot-outs at European and World Cups and in the Champions League since 1976. With one clear finding: »There is no data basis for the assumption that young players or substitutes score fewer goals as older players or those who played the whole game, ”Jordet told SPIEGEL. He had previously shared some of his research on Twitter.
The nomination of Rashford, Sancho and Saka was unsuccessful.
The choice of shooters was based on the right thoughts.
"For one thing, there are many indications that Southgate used their best penalty takers in the penalty shoot-out," says Jordet.
Rashford converted 15 of his last 17 penalties, while Sancho took ten of his last eleven penalties.
They are each above the average of around 76 to 80 percent of converted penalties in Europe's top leagues.
Both are said to have been among the safest penalty shooters in training.
The right shooters, deployed (too) risky
On the other hand, there is a lot to be said for the choice of Saka: Offensive players like the youngster from Arsenal FC generally have a better rate of penalties than defenders. Southgate had to experience this firsthand in 1996, when today's coach of the Three Lions took a penalty against Germany as a defender in Wembley and sealed the end of the English in the EM semifinals, because he failed to Andreas Köpke in the goal of the DFB-Elf.
So there is little to criticize about the selection of shooters based on the data. Probably because of Southgate's decision to bring Rashford and Sancho in the final minute of extra time. "In my opinion, this is a risky move because it puts additional pressure on these players," says Jordet. “The fact that these two players didn't have much playing time in the entire tournament is another risk factor.” The pressure on the English players was extreme anyway - at home, in the final, with England's history in the decisive penalty shoot-out in mind.
What can happen if a striker is sent onto the pitch for just a single shot was experienced by opponents in the final, Italy 2016: At that time, substitute Simone Zaza shot the ball over the goal in the quarter-finals against Germany from eleven meters. This time Rashford hit the post, Sancho failed to Gianluigi Donnarumma, who had already saved in the semifinals against Spain's Álvaro Morata. Italy had two match points, even after Jorginho's miss, England were doomed to meet.
So Saka got into a situation that would have been difficult for any shooter, regardless of vita or role in the team. According to Jordet's data, only 62 percent of all players hit when a miss means certain defeat. If one hit is enough for a certain victory, it is 92 percent. Those who have to follow suit are clearly at a disadvantage. Saka wasn't the only thing that robbed the English of their title chance - it was rather the circumstances in which the teenager was put.