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Luka Doncic
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Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
Dirk Nowitzki claims to have known.
"What did I tell you?" he yelled happily at some of the players.
His former team, the Dallas Mavericks, had just defeated the Phoenix Suns and thus reached the Conference Finals - for the first time since winning the title in 2011. A few moments later Nowitzki had the outstanding man in his arms: Luka Doncic.
The cordial exchange between the former and the current superstar of the franchise was symbolic.
The way Doncic is currently carrying the Mavericks through the playoffs is reminiscent of Nowitzki's spectacular title run eleven years ago.
At that time, the now 43-year-old was Dallas' key player, the face of the first and so far only NBA title in the club's history.
The hope that the second will now be added rests on Doncic.
At the same time, the first two games in the current Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors also raised a question.
Is Dallas too dependent on its superstar?
The Mavericks are behind there with 0: 2 defeats, the third game will take place on Monday night, for the first time in Dallas (3 a.m.; stream: DAZN).
The sporting gap between the two teams has been large so far.
The Mavs had recently presented themselves in outstanding form.
123:90 they had dismantled the Suns in the final game, a victory like a landslide.
Starting as an underdog, Dallas had dominated last year's finalists, never before had the point difference in a decisive seventh playoff game been so high.
Doncic in particular was unstoppable: he already had 27 points at half-time – just as many as the entire Suns team.
He was then asked whether he was aware of this.
The Slovenian was silent for a moment before a mischievous smile crept onto his face.
"Naturally!"
A typical Doncic.
He is not the elder statesman, not the model professional that Nowitzki embodied.
Where he tormented himself through the summer breaks with his mentor Holger Geschwindner, Doncic got out of shape at the start of the season.
And where Nowitzki attracted attention with his modesty and equanimity, Doncic secured the sympathy of many fans with a rascally, sometimes rebellious attitude.
What unites these diverse people is their ability to shoulder their team on offense.
The second best NBA value behind Michael Jordan
Doncic scored an average of 31.4 points in this year's playoffs.
In his entire NBA career there are even 32.5 points.
That's the second best value in history - behind Michael Jordan (33.4).
Although Doncic's record does not result from 179 games like Jordan's - there are only 25 - this yield nevertheless shows the enormous firepower of the only 23-year-old.
Though opposing defenses align their game plans with the Slovenian and can lock in on him in the playoffs over multiple games, he's unstoppable.
The Phoenix Suns went into the match-up against Dallas with one of the strongest defenses in the league, and yet they couldn't find anything against Doncic: Unexpected turns, deceptions, feinting - again and again he spectacularly unbalanced his opponents.
Nowitzki never had his variability and his ability to create from dribbling for himself and others.
But the youngster is increasingly using a technique that the German has revolutionized: the low post.
Doncic pushes his opponent with his back towards the zone, with his two or three extra kilos helping him.
If the defender is not up to his power, one turn is enough for a relatively easy finish.
If he can withstand him, Doncic sometimes starts Nowitzki's parade shot: the one-legged fadeway, a one-legged jump shot while falling backwards.
Few current NBA players have mastered this degree, shaped by Nowitzki, better than Doncic.
In addition to scoring, Doncic also bears the brunt of the Mavericks offense as a playmaker: almost every attack runs through him and usually ends with a shot by the Slovenian or a pass behind the three-point line, where the team's many shooters are lurking.
Glue and the Secret Weapon
Dallas takes 40.9 three-pointers per game in the playoffs, by far the highest value of any team.
The hit rate varies from game to game, but the average of 37.2 percent is strong.
National player Maxi Kleber played a large part in this, with a remarkable volume of 4.5 transactions and 47.6 percent of successful threesomes - the best value in the team.
Kleber, who plays as a center or power forward, often ties down the opponent's best big defender at the three-point line, giving Doncic space under the basket.
Defense is at least as important to Dallas' success.
The Utah Jazz (4-2) and the Suns (4-3) were only allowed 102.6 points per game in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Of the remaining teams, only the Miami Heat (100.5) defend more successfully.
Threes and defense, these are also parallels to the Mavericks run in 2011: Although Nowitzki and Doncic had solid scorers with Jason Terry (17.5 points) and Jalen Brunson (22.3 points), their co-stars are or were the team's shooting and defense.
Doncic knows that too.
Following his "Of course" statement, he did not speak about himself, but about the "phenomenal" defense of his colleagues.
What happens when one of these co-stars doesn't deliver was revealed in Game One of the Conference Finals: Dallas was beaten 87-112 by the Warriors, largely because the three-pointers didn't sit.
This allowed the opponent to increasingly focus on blocking Doncic's way into the zone.
While he had held up well with 18 points in the first half, there was only one more successful conclusion in the second half.
Game two was closer, but the Mavericks also lost this one (117:126), despite a Super-Doncic' (42 points) and a good three-pointer.
Unlike Nowitzki, who faced an inexperienced opponent, Oklahoma City Thunder, in the 2011 Conference Finals, the Mavs will face one-to-one this time.
With the core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green still intact, Golden State has already won three championships (2015, 2017, 2018).
A Doncic alone will not be enough
From a certain level, even an over-Doncic is not enough.
Although Nowitzki often had to play the solo entertainer, he had much stronger support in comparison in 2011: Jason Kidd, now the Mavericks coach, gave most of the assists in the team.
Most steals too.
Tyson Chandler was the best rebounder.
Nowitzki may have been the outstanding player, but the supporting roles were excellently cast.
In the current Mavs team, the same name reigns supreme in all of these categories: Luka Doncic.
With all the parallels to the title year 2011, this is a significant difference.
He's probably also the key to the question of whether Dallas is the best NBA team this year.
