It's been 22 years since Real Madrid played a Champions League final without being favourites.
The data shows that Liverpool arrives with better figures, preferred by statistical models and bets, but also that Madrid has already defeated three rivals that were theoretically superior.
Next we review the keys of the duel.
1. Liverpool is the best team at the moment by results and Real Madrid, the third
The English club leads the Elo ranking, a classification that adds and subtracts points to the teams based on their results and their rivals.
Liverpool tops this ranking, while Madrid appears third, still behind Manchester City.
The graph shows the evolution of the two teams since the final that faced them in 2018.
Elo rankings, although originating from chess, have gained popularity in soccer, tennis, and other sports.
Madrid and Liverpool started the season with even forces, both with around 1,940 points, behind City and Bayern.
Since then, the two teams have been rising in the ranking, the result of a course of good results, but Liverpool reaches higher: they have won more games than Madrid in their league and also in the Champions League.
2. Liverpool have been better in attack and defense
Another element that leads one to think that Liverpool is a favorite in the final is the expected goals (xG) data that they have managed to generate this season.
This metric measures the quality of chances a team creates.
It evaluates their ability to generate danger, and also, by looking at the opponent's data, the skill of the defense to avoid it.
The dominance of Klopp's men has been enormous in the Premier League: according to this metric, Liverpool created chances to score 2.3 goals per game, while their rivals only allowed chances that meant 1 expected goal per game.
Real Madrid has also generated more danger than they have generated, but with half the margin than Liverpool.
Ancelotti's men made chances for 1.6 expected goals per game, but allowed 1 expected goal against.
3. Salah vs. Benzema and Vinicius vs. Mané: the duels of key players are more even
The final will be full of duels, but perhaps the fundamental one is the one that faces the best attackers of each team, who are also the best of the season: Karim Benzema and Mohamed Salah, top scorers and top assisters in the League and the Premier .
It can be verified with the advanced statistics radars of the specialized company Statsbomb.
Karim Benzema
Champions and league 2021-2022
Major League Percentile (100 = best)
Mohammed Salah
Champions and league 2021-2022
Major League Percentile (100 = best)
Table: StatsBomb / EL PAÍS
Benzema is among the best attackers in Europe, in the 97th percentile for shots —that is, among the 3% of players who shoot the most—, and he is also brilliant in xG (96), in assists (93) and for his touches in the area (98).
Salah also excels at all of that, but the Frenchman outclasses him in tasks that occur earlier in the build, like holding the ball, moving it forward or securing passes from him.
Another comparison can be established between Vinicius and Mané, the main companions of the two most lethal footballers of each team.
The madridista, for example, has stood out for his ability to give passes with scoring potential, which is what the xG assists metric measures: he gave passes worth one assist every three games.
Vincius Junior
Champions and league 2021-2022
Major League Percentile (100 = best)
Sadio Mane
Champions and league 2021-2022
Major League Percentile (100 = best)
Table: StatsBomb / EL PAÍS
4. A key move for Madrid: Benzema touches for Vinicius, who rushes the baseline and chooses between shooting or returning it to the penalty spot
An example of that pattern was this play in a league game against Alavés in February.
Vinicius
Benzema
Benzema seeks to uncheck Vinicius behind his defender
1
Benzema
Vinicius
While Vinicius leaves for speed and drags two defenders, Benzema looks for the hole in the center of the area
two
Benzema
Vinicius
Without an angle for the shot, Vinicius puts the pass towards the penalty spot, where he knows Benzema is
3
Benzema
Benzema receives the ball alone.
He shoots on first touch.
The ball hits the post
4
Vinicius
Benzema
Benzema
Vinicius
Benzema seeks to uncheck Vinicius behind his defender
While Vinicius leaves for speed and drags two defenders, Benzema looks for the hole in the center of the area
1
two
Benzema
Benzema
Vinicius
Benzema receives the ball alone.
He shoots on first touch.
The ball hits the post
Without an angle for the shot, Vinicius puts the pass towards the penalty spot, where he knows Benzema is
4
3
5. A move from Liverpool: Full-back Trent Alexander-Arnold creates chances from inside
An example is this center-shot against Atlético de Madrid in the Champions League group stage.
Trent
Salah
Salah occupies the band and gives the space to Trent attacks inside
1
Mane
Trent
Mané stands out between the two centrals
two
Trent
Mane
Train sees it and shoots on goal with Mané in the direction of the shot
3
Mane
oblak
Mané goes ahead, changes the trajectory of the ball and scores a goal tricking Oblack
4
Trent
Mane
Salah
Trent
Salah occupies the band and gives the space to Trent attacks inside
Mané stands out between the two centrals
1
two
Mane
Trent
Mane
oblak
Train sees it and shoots on goal with Mané in the direction of the shot
Mané goes ahead, changes the trajectory of the ball and scores a goal tricking Oblack
3
4
6. The styles: a dominant Liverpool, a Real Madrid that expresses its virtues
Liverpool have based their game on a combination of ball control and intense pressure.
He is among the best in possession and in successful passing, but he also stands out for his high and aggressive defense, which allows him to create danger after recovering up front.
With this model, he manages to generate a lot of xG and concede very little.
real Madrid
Champions and league 2021-2022
Major League Percentile (100 = best)
Liverpool
Champions and league 2021-2022
Major League Percentile (100 = best)
Table: StatsBomb / EL PAÍS
Madrid's radar is less round, but it also hints at a plan.
They allow their opponents to touch – that's what passes are measured by defensive action – and put the defense much closer to their goalkeeper.
But in attack they play from behind, build with precision and are capable of generating danger.
They achieve it on play and especially after stealing the ball with high pressure.
That attention earned him, for example, to score goals against PSG and Chelsea by forcing errors from their goalkeepers.
In the Champions League, these game differences are observed when we represent the dominance of each team on the pitch.
Liverpool touches the ball more than their rivals in almost every area of the pitch.
Instead, Madrid gives up a lot of space in the midfield, and only clearly dominates the flank on which Vinicius moves, where he connects with Benzema, Mendy and Kroos.
Dominance in the areas of the field
Difference between the touches of a team and its rival in each zone, in the Champions League in 2021-2022.
In green, the domain areas;
in gray, areas where the rival prevails.
The 'reds' have dominated most areas
Liverpool
-200
0
200
attack direction
real Madrid
Area of influence
by Vinicius
Real Madrid have faced the best left wingers in the world
Dominance in the areas of the field
Difference between the touches of a team and its rival in each zone, in the Champions League in 2021-2022.
In green, the domain areas;
in gray, areas where the rival prevails.
The 'reds' have dominated most areas
Liverpool
-200
0
200
attack direction
real Madrid
Area of influence
by Vinicius
Real Madrid have faced the best left wingers in the world
Dominance in the areas of the field
Difference between the touches of a team and its rival in each zone, in the Champions League in 2021-2022.
In green, the domain areas;
in gray, areas where the rival prevails.
Liverpool
Liverpool have dominated most areas.
attack direction
-200
0
200
real Madrid
Area of influence
by Vinicius
Real Madrid have faced the best left wingers in the world
Es cierto que los partidos de las eliminatorias del Liverpool y del Real Madrid han tenido guiones bien distintos, en parte porque sus rivales también lo han sido. Mientras que los blancos han tenido que dejar en el camino al PSG, el Chelsea y el Manchester City; los de Klopp han superado al Inter, al Benfica y al Villarreal.
7. El Madrid aprieta en las vueltas, contra las cuerdas
Las redes de pases muestran un aspecto interesante de cómo ha jugado el Real Madrid las eliminatorias. Habitualmente, en los partidos de ida, las posiciones medias de sus jugadores son más retrasadas, y con mayor simetría, mientras que en las vueltas, cuando ha necesitado recortar ventaja, se aprecia un estirón hacia delante, en especial en el flanco de Vinicius, que arrastra al equipo y desequilibra al rival.
Por el contrario, el Liverpool apenas pierde la simetría y se mantiene siempre sobre todo al ataque, salvo en el partido de vuelta contra el Villarreal, que ha sido el equipo que más le ha apurado en estos cruces de la Champions.
8. El mejor dato del Madrid es que hasta ahora ha batido las predicciones para alcanzar esta final
Ni casas de apuestas ni modelos estadísticos han otorgado al Real Madrid demasiadas posibilidades de ganar la Champions este año. Es muy ilustrativa la evolución de las opciones que le ha ido dando el modelo de la web especializada FiveThirtyEight.
Madrid have always been less favorites than their opponents, until they have been eliminated.
In the round of 16 they had fewer options to win the Champions League than PSG, in the quarterfinals less than Chelsea and in the semifinals less than City.
The same model now says that Liverpool are the favourites, but why wouldn't Madrid also break that forecast?
Mariano Zafra
and
José A. Álvarez
have collaborated in this article
.
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