Is Tuchel now experiencing the crash at Chelsea?

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Thomas Tuchel with his striker Timo Werner: "We are absolutely not competitive"

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Alastair Grant/AP

It starts with Crystal Palace against Arsenal this Friday evening (9 p.m. / Sky), it ends with Pep Guardiola or Jürgen Klopp: at least the latter has always been the case in the Premier League for the past five seasons.

The team of one of these two exceptional coaches was always champion, four times Guardiola's Manchester City, once Klopp's FC Liverpool.

More variety in the fight for the title, two transfers seem to cloud hope for this.

With Erling Haaland (City) and Darwin Nuñez (Liverpool), both top teams have even signed a new star for their offensive.

They have already met in the Community Shield, the English equivalent of the Super Cup – Nuñez scored, Haaland didn't, Liverpool beat City.

It may sound paradoxical, but it is precisely these commitments that put the dominance of both teams in question.

Why?

And which club has what it takes to surprise the season?

Four questions about the start of the 2022/2023 season.

Are City and Liverpool fighting for the title again?

After that it looks.

In the past five years, both teams have averaged points of 91.6 (City) and 87.4 (Liverpool).

A long way behind in third place: Chelsea (69.8 points).

Guardiola and Klopp's teams are in a class of their own.

And these exceptional clubs have now invested heavily.

But the first impressions already indicate that Haaland, who came from Dortmund, could take some time before he has integrated into the complex city system - read more about the hurdles that arise here.

Man City plays across more often than any other top team, while Haaland waits for through passes;

Putting the two together might take time.

Especially since the other two prominent Manchester additions, Kalvin Philipps and Julián Álvarez, do not exactly fit the style of play of the past two seasons.

Guardiola seems to be rebuilding bigger again.

That could cost City some points.

The situation is similar in Liverpool: as is well known, Sadio Mané has switched to FC Bayern, and his movements as a center forward do not correspond to those of Nuñez, type: brute counterattack.

He is unlikely to play Mané's role as a false nine.

So Klopp also has to rebuild.

He had significantly improved his team's style of play last season, especially when it came to possession of the ball against deep opponents.

Possible adjustment problems should therefore cost some points.

But one of the front seats?

This is not to be expected.

Borussia Dortmund is more likely to become German champion.

Is Tuchel now threatened with a crash landing?

He came and promptly became the Champions League winner, but as wonderful as Tuchel's first few months at Chelsea were, the coming months will be just as complicated.

If you believe the bookmakers, the man who started his job so brilliantly in 2021 is one of the candidates for the fastest ejection of the season.

"We are absolutely not competitive," said Tuchel himself about two weeks ago.

Since his team had lost a preparatory game against Arsenal.

Namely 0:4.

It's true that after the Champions League triumph, Tuchel didn't manage to raise his team to the level of City and Liverpool.

However, the circumstances in London last season were adverse: Roman Abramovich's departure, the sanctions against him that rendered the club unable to act, the question of how the club would continue: all this made Tuchel's work more difficult.

Now the squad of Chelsea FC is a construction site.

After the departure of Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid) and Andreas Christensen (Barcelona), a defender is missing, Romelu Lukaku was handed over without replacement, in midfield an alternative to the permanent staff is needed.

And the fact that Chelsea's dream players cancel transfers at the last moment and prefer to sign with FC Barcelona, ​​as happened with Ousmane Dembélé, Raphina and Jules Koundé, became the running gag of the summer.

After all: Abramovich's successor, the American Todd Boehly, is apparently willing to spend a lot of money on additions.

And despite all the difficulties, it remains true that there aren't many better coaches than Tuchel.

Leading this Chelsea side through the upheaval and into the Champions League will not be an easy task.

Who has what it takes to surprise the season?

In the English media, Tottenham Hotspur is mentioned above all, and that sounds logical.

A good squad has been strengthened in breadth, with Harry Kane and Son Heung-min attacking two who have what it takes to be player of the season, and then, above all, there's the coach.

Antonio Conte is the last Premier League coach whose name is not Pep Guardiola or Jürgen Klopp.

Six years ago he won the title with Chelsea.

Since the Italian followed the ousted José Mourinho at Spurs last season, only City and Liverpool have scored better than Tottenham.

Only: Conte would have to massively improve his good league point average with the Spurs (2.0 points per game) in order to attack the top two.

Such a leap in performance would not only be a surprise, but a sensation.

Another team could turn out to be the surprise of the season, even if it might have nothing to do with the title fight: Newcastle United.

The club was sold to a Saudi consortium last season, making it the wealthiest owner in world football.

Amazingly, United didn't go on a spending spree afterwards.

The club invests a lot of money, yes, but you do it with care.

The most expensive and important transfer was that of Bruno Guimarães, who came in the winter and became the key player on the way to staying up.

And since Eddie Howe has been coaching Newcastle, the team has not scored like one fighting relegation, but like a European Cup aspirant.

One particular circumstance could even lead to Newcastle attacking the league's top six.

United doesn't play in Europe, but can fully concentrate on the Premier League.

And the issue of stress is likely to be even greater this season than usual. Because the players in the top clubs in particular have to go to Qatar in the middle of the season in addition to national competitions and the European Cup to play a World Cup there.

The league continues a few days after the World Cup final.

This workload could lead to injuries and thus to crises.

Newcastle can be trusted to be there when that happens.

What will become of Cristiano Ronaldo?

The Ronaldo calculation no longer works.

It actually goes like this: The goals that the star striker guarantees his club outweigh what he costs, both financially and sportingly.

Because Ronaldo not only earns quite a lot of money, he now moves on the pitch especially when it gives him an advantage.

According to statistics site fbref.com, no striker in Europe's five top divisions presses as little as Ronaldo.

Anyone who sets up Ronaldo has to absorb that, align his team entirely with the Portuguese.

The problem is that Ronaldo isn't scoring like he used to.

He made 0.78 goals per 90 minutes for Manchester United last season.

That's good, but not world class.

In his most successful season, 2014/2015, he achieved a rate that was more than twice as high (1.64).

His current numbers don't justify discarding your game idea and tailoring everything to Ronaldo.

Apparently quite a few in the football industry see it that way.

Cristiano Ronaldo himself, of course, not.

He wants to leave Manchester, but has not found a new club so far, but there have been several public rejections, including from Bayern Munich.

Will Ronaldo still play in Manchester after the end of the transfer period?

Hard to say.

Will he find a club with which he can attack again in the Champions League?

Rather not.