The first reactions following the draw for the Euro 2024 qualifiers held today (Sunday) in Frankfurt were along the lines of: "Prepare your passports. You can order plane tickets to Germany", and "If we don't go up this time, it will be the team's biggest failure ever".
But let's get into the proportions.
On the one hand, this is really a relatively convenient lottery.
Israel, which thanks to the success in the League of Nations was placed in the second tier, could have received much more difficult draws, such as Scotland (Spain and Norway), or Austria (Belgium and Sweden).
On the other hand, the disdain that is heard from all sides regarding the opponents the team received - Romania, Kosovo and even Switzerland - reminds of distant and not particularly successful days, when we heard the phrase "Who is Bosnia?" over and over again.
(or Wales, or Greece).
The full draw.
Is there a chance for the national team this time? Photo: Reuters
Of course, a separation should be made.
The professional team, led by Yossi Benyon and Alon Hazan, certainly does not underestimate any opponent, and there will be careful preparation against all of them, also against Andorra.
But the general feeling is that "Olim is safe. If not - it's a fiasco."
So let's do some tidying up;
Switzerland is ranked 15th in the world and 11th in Europe, according to the latest FIFA ranking. Even if it is not always accurate, at least in this specific case, it gives a faithful picture. For comparison, Israel is ranked 76th in the world.
Switzerland reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2021, after knocking out world champion France in the round of 16.
In the quarter, she lost to Spain only on penalties.
In addition, the team qualified for the World Cup in Qatar (will play against Cameroon, Brazil and Serbia in the early stage), and just a few weeks ago beat Spain 1:2 away.
Alon Hazan and Yossi Banyon.
They will prepare the team properly, photo: Udi Tsitiat
In other words, it would be a huge sensation if she didn't qualify from first place at home.
Which leaves the battle for the second ticket to the Euro to three teams: Romania, Israel and Kosovo.
Andorra will probably lose all its games and Belarus, due to its support for Russia in the war against Ukraine, cannot host games on its territory, which greatly reduces its chances.
So what are Israel's chances of finishing in second place?
Well, not bad at all.
Romania is in a big retreat, and does not remind anything of the great national teams of the 90s, of Giorgi Haji and Florin Raducio.
Kosovo is a new team in the European arena, which does not have too much experience.
And yet, these are two not bad teams.
And just as Israel believes that it can finish in second place at home, that's exactly how they think in both Bucharest and Pristina.
Let's start with Kosovo, which is guided by former French star Alain Ziers, European champion in 1984.
In the last Nations League, they defeated Cyprus 1:5 at home and 0:2 away, and also beat Northern Ireland 2:3.
This is a team that could be a "mine" for any opponent.
Romania, which in 1997 was ranked 3rd in the world, has deteriorated since then and is currently ranked 53rd - still 23 places above Israel.
She has not qualified for the last six World Cups and at Euro 2016, her last major tournament, she failed miserably.
And yet, in the last match in the League of Nations, last month, Romania beat Bosnia 1:4.
On the other hand, they were defeated 3:0 at home by Montenegro.
So it's true, the Israeli national team is making progress.
The ability is impressive, there are many talented young players, some of whom are already playing in the senior team and some (Oskar Gloch, Daniel Peretz) will get there very soon.
And yet, it is desirable and worthwhile to stay with your feet on the ground.
It is too early to order plane tickets to Germany and the fight for the ticket to the Euro will be difficult and probably tight.
In terms of odds, Israel and Romania have an equal chance of finishing second, with Kosovo able to surprise.
In terms of percentages, Israel has 45 percent to qualify, Romania 45 percent and Kosovo with 10 percent.
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