The players of the national teams of Argentina and Mexico, Lionel Messi and Hirving Lozano, during the World Cup in Qatar.AFP
All or nothing for Argentina.
The Albiceleste need to win or draw to stay alive in the World Cup in Qatar.
The desperation of Messi and company will play against a Mexican team that has on its feet the feat of beating Argentina for the first time in a World Cup.
According to the EL PAÍS data model, the probability that Mexico will be left out of the tournament in the first phase is 64%, it has a 21% chance to go second and only 15% to finish first in the group.
Argentina is favored by these odds: it has only 37% to be eliminated, 29% to finish second in the group and 33% to lead the sector.
That is to say: he has a 62% chance of playing the second round.
The unusual victory of Saudi Arabia against Scaloni's men leaves the Asian country with a 64% chance of reaching the round of 16, while Poland has 39%.
This Saturday they play Argentina against Mexico (1:00 p.m. Mexican time, 4:00 p.m. Buenos Aires time and 8:00 p.m. Spanish time).
Before, they will play Poland and Saudi Arabia (7:00 in Mexico, 10:00 in Argentina and 14:00 in Spain).
On Wednesday, November 30, the matches will be at the same time: Poland - Argentina and Saudi Arabia -Mexico (1:00 p.m. Mexican time, 4:00 p.m. Buenos Aires time and 8:00 p.m. Spanish time).
The ideal for Messi
The best scenario for the Copa América champions is to beat Mexico, for Poland to beat the Saudis on this second date.
And that on the last day they beat Poland and that the Mexicans and the Arabs tie, or even a Mexican victory.
The second positive scenario for the Argentines: beat Mexico and have Poland and Saudi Arabia tie.
Thus, on the last day of games, a victory against the Poles would leave them unconcerned about what happens between Saudi Arabia and Mexico.
A third scenario: draw against Tata Martino's men, that the Poles draw with the Arabs and in the last minute that the Albiceleste win against Lewandowski's men.
Thus, any result between Mexico and the Saudis would not matter.
A fourth, not so pleasant scenario: it would be for Argentina to tie against Martino's men, for Saudi Arabia to win against Poland.
In the last game that the Argentines beat Poland and that the Mexicans lose or tie their last game.
Fifth scenario that would leave a lot of tension: that the Tri win against those of Scaloni and Saudi Arabia beat Poland.
Thus, the last chance for the Argentines would be to beat Poland and for the Arabs to remain as group leaders after beating or drawing against Mexico.
What happens if Argentina loses against Mexico?
Now, if the Poles and the Arabs tie and the Albiceleste lose to Mexico, a victory for Argentina would not be enough against Poland since any result between the Mexicans and the Arabs would move the South American team to third in the group.
If Poland wins against Saudi Arabia and Argentina loses against Mexico, things get tricky: because no positive result from the Argentines against the Poles would help them.
It is immediate removal.
Now, if Poland and Argentina win their second game, but in their direct confrontation the Poles win, they would take everything to the elimination of Argentina.
If Poland and Argentina win their second game, but at the crossroads they tie and Arabia wins, draws or loses against Mexico... Out with Argentina.
Ángel Di María, during the match between Argentina and Saudi Arabia. Ebrahim Noroozi (AP)
What does Mexico need to go to the round of 16?
The best thing for the Mexicans is to believe in a victory against Argentina and a victory for Poland against Arabia to close the group.
On the last round, a win for El Tri against the Saudis would see them top the group as long as Poland draws or loses against Argentina.
If Lewandowski's team won, they would leave El Tri as second place.
Another good scenario is that both Poland and Saudi Arabia draw and Mexico win against Argentina.
Thus, in an ideal world, dream of a defeat or a draw for Albiceleste and the Poles and win the last game against the Asians.
This would be the first classified.
There is a third probability: that there will be a draw in the two games (Poland-Saudi Arabia; Mexico-Argentina).
Adding a tentative tie between Poles and Argentines (and even an Argentine triumph) and a Mexican victory on the final date would leave El Tri as the leader.
Even more: if Poland beat Argentina, Martino's men would enter the round of 16 as seconds.
What happens if Mexico loses to Argentina?
If the Mexicans fall against Argentina it would not be the end of the road.
They would have to wait, for example, for Poland and Saudi Arabia to tie.
Thus, on the last date, expect the Albiceleste to fall against the Poles and the Tri win against the Arabs.
That would leave Mexico as second in the group.
Should Poland win against the Saudis, Mexico lose to Argentina complicates matters.
In the final day, a victory for the Europeans against the South Americans would give a certain air to the Mexicans who, with a victory, would go on to the next round.
A loss or tie leaves them out.
If Poland beat Saudi Arabia and Argentina beat Mexico, things start to go wrong for the Mexicans.
Another Argentine triumph against the Poles closes the way for the Mexicans who, even with a victory against the Arabs, would have no chance.
What has to happen for Argentina and Mexico to qualify?
They need the Poles and Arabs to draw.
In the direct duel between the two there must be an Argentine victory.
If Mexico wins, Argentina is no longer so sure.
And, thus, both Latin American teams would need to win their last game.
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