Arithmetic games after a botched World Cup start: The possible DFB way to the round of 16
Created: 11/27/2022, 1:35 p.m
By: Corbinian Kothny
Costa Rica beat Japan to shake up Group E again at the 2022 World Cup.
What the surprise victory means for Germany's chances of reaching the round of 16.
Update from November 27, 1:15 p.m .:
Germany receives support from Central America!
Few would have expected that: Costa Rica beat Germany's conqueror Japan 1-0 in a game with few chances and thus provided a through ball for the DFB team.
The Flick-Elf can no longer be eliminated on Sunday – on the contrary.
What the victory means for Germany's chances of reaching the round of 16:
Germany wins against Spain:
The best possible scenario.
With a win against the Spaniards, Germany could reach the round of 16 on their own.
For this, the DFB-Elf would only have to defeat the previously harmless Costa Ricans on the third matchday.
Depending on the outcome of the parallel game between Spain and Japan, Germany would then go on as group runners-up or even group winners.
Germany draws against Spain:
In this case, Germany would again have to rely on Schützenhilfe on the third matchday.
If Germany beats Costa Rica and Spain wins in parallel against Japan, the Flick-Elf will go into the knockout stages as second in the group.
Germany loses against Spain:
Even in this scenario, the chances of reaching the round of 16 remain.
Here, too, Germany would need support from Spain in addition to a victory over Costa Rica.
Germany would be level on points with the Japanese and Costa Rica if Spain defeated Japan.
Then the goal difference decides on the advancement.
Before the game against Spain, Germany has a goal difference of -1.
Japan is a goal better at 0 after two games.
Costa Rica surprisingly beat Germany's conqueror Japan 1-0.
© Charlotte Wilson/imago-images
Arithmetic games after a botched World Cup start: The DFB-Elf are eliminated on Sunday
First report from November 24th:
Munich
– The German national team had imagined that differently.
The DFB team botched the start of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and lost 2-1 to outsiders Japan.
Even before the second group game against Spain on Sunday, Hansi Flick's team is under a lot of pressure.
Even the World Cup is already possible on Sunday.
World Cup 2022 |
Qatar |
November 20 - December 18 |
Eight Stadiums |
64 games |
World Cup in Qatar: DFB-Elf is eliminated if Japan scores a point
"Now we have the salad," said Thomas Müller right after the opening defeat.
The DFB-Elf faces a “do-or-die” game against Spain in their second group game.
With another defeat, the second preliminary round after 2018 would be as good as fixed for Germany.
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Hansi, these three players have to go against Spain
In this case, should the Japanese draw at least one draw against Costa Rica, the DFB team has no chance of ousting Japan or Spain from the top two places.
The arithmetic games become much more complicated if Germany draws on Sunday.
Manuel Neuer and the DFB-Elf are about to end the World Cup.
© IMAGO/Markus Ulmer
World Cup in Qatar: draw on Sunday is not enough for the DFB-Elf
However, in this case, too, the DFB-Elf would have a bad chance of making it into the round of 16 and would no longer be able to control it themselves.
Should the Japanese win against Costa Rica, the Germans would have to hope for an Asian win against Spain in the final group final and at the same time catch up eight goals on “La Roja”.
Unlikely.
Should both games in Group E end in a draw on Sunday, the Germans will have to hope for a Spanish victory against Japan and end up with a better goal difference than Japan.
Because: For the final table, the first criterion that counts is not the direct comparison, but the goal difference.
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World Cup in Qatar: The first thing that counts is the goal difference
It will be really exciting should the DFB-Elf actually win against Spain on Sunday and defeat Japan Costa Rica.
Then everything would boil down to the third matchday.
Should Spain beat Japan there and Germany beat Costa Rica, all three teams would have six points after the preliminary round.
Here the Spaniards would probably have the best chance of winning the group thanks to their 7-0 win against Costa Rica.
Germany and Japan would have to hope for the better goal difference over the other.
Flick's team could also be eliminated, although the two remaining games are still won.
World Cup in Qatar: DFB-Elf needs victory on Sunday
Good for Germany: Japan will play at 11 a.m. (CET) on Sunday, while the DFB-Elf will not meet Spain until 8 p.m. (this is the schedule for the 2022 World Cup for the DFB-Elf).
So the Germans already know before their game what scenario awaits them.
On the other hand, if the Japanese are expected to beat Costa Rica, they are very unlikely to reach the round of 16 with anything but a win.
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