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What options does each team have to go to the round of 16 of the World Cup?


We review the results that classify each team and measure their probabilities with our statistical model. Brazil, France and Portugal have already qualified

After the first two days of the World Cup, there are already some classified teams and others that are packing their bags, but most have their destiny to decide.

Next we review each group and their accounts.

We also include the probability that each team has of being in the round of 16 according to the prediction of EL PAÍS.

For example, in group E, Spain has a 98% chance of going to the final phase, and 85% of the time they will do so first.

Group A: Two places to decide between the Netherlands, Ecuador and Senegal, which depend on themselves



It is worth a draw against Qatar and will be classified for the round of 16.

That should be easy for you: our model has it in the round of 16 with a probability of 98%.

Even losing can be ranked in various scenarios.


They are in a similar situation, but with a more demanding opponent: it is enough for them to draw with Senegal.

If they lose, they would need a bigger loss to the Netherlands, or one by the same difference, but in which the


scored fewer goals than they did.

The sum of all these alternatives gives him a 68% chance of being in the round of 16.



It will happen if they win Ecuador.

In the event of a tie, you would need Qatar to beat the Netherlands by more than two goals, or by exactly two goals and scoring more goals than the Dutch.

Although it depends on itself, our model gives it half the options that Ecuador does.



Already deleted.

Group B: England almost certain and a historic duel between the United States and Iran



It has the classification almost assured (99%).

Only a four-goal defeat against Wales could knock them out of the round of 16.



If they win against the United States, they will qualify.

In the event of a tie, possibly too: only a win for Wales against England could put them out.

By one way or another, he has 6 options out of 10 to continue in the tournament.

United States


All their options are to beat Iran.



Gareth Bale's team is almost out of the World Cup.

His last hope is to beat England, and Iran and the United States draw.

For our model, his pass will only occur with a probability of 4%.

Another even more remote possibility is that he thrash England.

Group C: One of the most open, although with Argentina as the first candidate



A draw with Argentina is enough for him.

They will also go to the round of 16 losing, if Mexico and Saudi Arabia tie, and even if Mexico wins, depending on the results in goals.



Secure the advance with a win over Poland.

If it draws?

Our model gives them the walk with probability 80%, adding up all the paths.

Saudi Arabia


They qualify if they beat Mexico.

A tie can also be worth it, for example, if Argentina loses, or if Poland falls by three or more goals.



It does not depend on itself.

He would need to win and the result of the other match to help him.

You're not all lost, but our model only gives you a choice of four.

Group D: France and who else?



Ranked and first.



A victory takes her to the round of 16.

Even a draw can be useful, for example if Tunisia does not beat France.

Options: 43%.



She does not depend on herself: she needs to win Australia and Tunisia not achieve a greater victory than hers against France.

However, our model is optimistic and thinks that it will qualify 55% of the time, more or less half.



Its success is highly unlikely.

The Tunisians need to win and Denmark draw with Australia, or the Danes win but the goal results go their way.

These caroms only have a 2% chance.

Group E: Spain is in the round of 16 at 98%



A draw against Japan is enough for the red.

If they lose, a Costa Rica victory and also a huge German rout are out of the question, but it shouldn't happen more than 1 in 50 times.



They qualify if they beat Spain.

If he draws, he will be pending the result of the other game, but our model only gives him 18%.

Costa Rica


If they beat Germany they will go to the round of 16.

And a tie can be enough if Spain beats Japan, or if the Japanese win in a super bulky way.

In total, these options give you a 30% chance to pass.



It does not depend on itself.

Victory is essential for them, but they must also keep their eyes on the other game: they pass if Spain wins, but also if they draw or even lose, depending on the goals in both games.

Germany is the second most likely to pass according to our model: 56%.

Group F: favorite Morocco and Croatia



It is enough for him to tie.

Should they lose, they should expect a defeat for Morocco against the already eliminated Canada.



The favorite of the group for our model, with an 88% chance of reaching the eighth.

A draw puts them in the next phase, but even losing they would have options to go through in certain combinations, as long as Belgium does not win.



A victory against Croatia would serve to qualify.

It also happens with a draw, if Morocco suffers a resounding defeat.




Group G: Brazil and maybe Switzerland



The favorite selection is already classified.

It will be first at 99%.



Winning would ensure the ticket to the round of 16, and a draw is also worth it if Cameroon does not beat Brazil.

By one way or another, the model gives him a 64% chance of accompanying Brazil in the round of 16.



They have it difficult, but not impossible: they need to beat Switzerland and hope Cameroon doesn't beat Brazil, or they would have to reckon with goal differences.



He has it really hard.

To go through they have to win and wait for the results of the other game: they need Switzerland not to win, and then look at the goal difference with each other.


Your pass shouldn't happen more than 1 in 50 times.

Group H: Portugal qualified, Uruguay in suspense






It could be worth drawing, as long as South Korea does not beat Portugal with a better goal difference.

It does not seem easy, the model gives him a 37% chance of passing.

South Korea


It is very complicated.

He has to win and hope that the results of Ghana-Uruguay will smile on him.

For our model it would only happen 1 out of 20 times.



Another selection that does not depend on itself.

They need to win and South Korea not to beat Portugal by more than their goal difference.

Even so, for our model it has a 57% chance of reaching the final phase.

And the chances of winning?

Our prediction model also estimates the probability that each team has to win, reach each stage and end up winning the World Cup.

The odds are updated every night, taking into account the matches that have been played that day.

Right now, the team with the most options to win the trophy is Brazil, with a 26% probability, followed by France (14%), Portugal (12%), Argentina (11%) and Spain (9%).









If you want to know more about the model, or save it to favorites to check its predictions every day, you have it here: the EL PAÍS World Cup model.

How are ties broken?

As established by FIFA, the World Cup rankings are defined, firstly, based on the number of points obtained by the teams in each group (three points for victories, one for draws and none in case of defeat).

In the event of a tie, the greatest difference in number of goals is taken and if this does not resolve the tie, the number of goals scored by each team in all group matches.

In the unlikely event that there continue to be draws between two or more teams, the same criteria will apply taking into account only the matches between those teams.

The next resource would be to assess fair play.

Ultimately it would be up to FIFA to make a draw.

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Source: elparis

All sports articles on 2022-11-29

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