The table above shows the eight round of 16 matches and the quarterfinal, semifinal and final matches.
RTVE will broadcast all the matches in Spain, four round of 16 matches, two quarterfinals, the two semifinals and the final.
All the matches can be seen on the Gol Mundial channel.
Next, the predictions to go to the quarterfinals and to win the tournament.
Our round of 16 prediction
At EL PAÍS we are forecasting the World Cup from day one, using a simple statistical model that simulates the tournament thousands of times every day.
These are his predictions for each match.
The Netherlands
and the
USA
will open the round of 16 on Saturday at 4:00 p.m.
The Dutch are clear favorites for our model and should win seven times out of 10.
It is more or less the same as the polls say, where the victory of the Netherlands has a probability of 66%.
After a rough start,
Argentina
managed to be first in the group and will meet
Australia
,
a priori
, a weak rival.
Our model believes that Lionel Messi's team should win 85% of the time and be in the quarterfinals.
As we explain below, the albiceleste is the second team with the most chances of ending up winning the trophy, according to our model.
France
, the current champion, will face
Poland
on Sunday at 4:00 p.m.
Although they lost their last meeting against Tunisia, the French will be in the next round three out of four times.
In the bets they see it even more clearly and raise their options to 85% and even 88%.
Another game with a clear favorite is the match between
England
and
Senegal
.
The English finished the group stage by beating Wales, and they are our model's fifth favorite to win the World Cup.
The one on Monday is expected to be the most balanced tie of the eight round of 16 rounds.
Japan
, which comes first in the group after beating Germany and Spain, faces
Croatia
.
And what does our model say?
That it is an even match, with a certain advantage for the Europeans, but whose result is not very different from that of a tossed coin.
The
Brazilian
team is also a clear favorite in their match against
South Korea
, with an 84% chance of winning and reaching the quarterfinals.
Despite their loss to Cameroon in their final group game, the Brazilians are still, according to our model, the team with the best chance of winning the trophy, with a choice of four.
Spain
plays the round of 16 against
Morocco
, starting as a favourite, but without being as clear as Brazil or France: it should pass the crossing 76% of the time.
The bets see it in a similar way, with 75% options for the selection of Luis Enrique.
In the duel between
Portugal
and
Switzerland
, the former are weak favourites, with a 65% chance of winning.
Our model prefers the Portuguese because of the market value of their players, which is higher than that of the Swiss team.
Who will win the World Cup?
Our model also allows trying to anticipate the final winner of the trophy.
To do this, we simulate the remainder of the tournament each day thousands of times, so that we can attribute probabilities.
The table shows the options for each team to win the World Cup.
PROBABILITY OF REACHING EACH STAGE AND WINNING THE WORLD CUP
SELECTION |
|---|
PS INDEX | EIGHTH | ROOMS | SEMIFINALS | FINAL | WIN |
|---|
If you want to know more about the model, or save it to favorites to check its predictions every day, you have it here: the EL PAÍS World Cup model.
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