Before the last two days of this 2023 edition of the Six Nations Tournament, any attempt to predict the final ranking would be daring.
The field of possibilities is still vast, and there are few certainties.
It is correct to say that, mathematically, Italy and Wales are excluded from the title race.
It is also correct to say that with its defeat in Dublin at the beginning of February, the XV of France no longer has its destiny in hand, unlike Ireland.
However, a final victory for Fabien Galthié's men cannot be ruled out.
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Calendar and results 6 Nations
Ranking Tournament 6 of Nations
The best way to stay alive at the end of the 5th disputed day this weekend would be to beat England with bonus.
A difficult performance, especially at Twickenham, but necessary to dream.
Because if at the same time Ireland offers Scotland with a bonus and neither the French nor the English also take the five points, then Jonathan Sexton and his teammates would be champions, regardless of the results of the last day. .
If the Blues take five points and Ireland too, then they will have to take the attacking bonus again on March 18 against Wales and count on a zero-point defeat for the Irish against England.
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Threesome for the last day?
Any other result than a victory for Ireland on Sunday in Scotland would completely restart the title race.
A household of three Ireland-Scotland-France or Ireland-Scotland-England would then be set up.
Everything would be played on the last day.
Note that some improbable scenarios give the XV of Clover the winner even with two defeats in the last two meetings.
One could imagine two very spectacular setbacks after which Andy Farrell's men would take all the bonuses, both offensive (at least four tries scored) and defensive (less than seven points apart).
They would finish with 19 points.
At the same time, two non-bonified French victories would put the Blues at 18 points…
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Note that in the event of a tie between two or more teams, they are decided according to the following criteria, taken one after the other:
Point difference.
With a difference of +3, France is currently behind Ireland (+51), Scotland (+23) and England (+21).
The number of trials scored.
Here too the Blues lag behind the other three leading teams.
If these two criteria do not make it possible to decide between the teams, they are officially declared tied.
In 1988, French and Welsh were declared co-winners of the Five Nations Tournament.
Daniel Dubroca was then captain, and no player of the current XV of France was born.
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