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Satellite image of the week: Jerk on the Bosphorus

2019-09-30T09:17:15.022Z


Within days, two earthquakes shook Istanbul, including the strongest in the region in 20 years. What does that mean for the 15 million-inhabitant city?



Experts warn for years: One day, a violent earthquake will shake Istanbul. The city has 15 million inhabitants. Experts therefore expect tens of thousands of dead, tens of thousands of injured and huge property damage. Buildings will collapse, infrastructure will be destroyed, according to the forecast. Large parts of the city are not prepared for the event.

When it will come to the disaster is unclear. All that is certain is that it is unavoidable.

The largest metropolis in Turkey is located on one of the most dangerous geological structures in the world, the so-called North Anatolian Fault. Where aboveground bridges connect the European and Asian parts of Istanbul, the Eurasian and the Anatolian plates meet in the underground. An astronaut from the International Space Station ISS photographed the region from space in 2017.

Now there is movement in the underground. On September 24 and 26, 2019, two quakes of magnitude 4.7 and 5.7 were measured under the Sea of ​​Marmara, about 70 kilometers from Istanbul, which were also felt in the metropolis. Authorities report at least 34 injured, so there were no deaths.

The second quake was the strongest in the region for 20 years. The earthquake in 1999 near Istanbul killed 17,000 people.

"We are watching the events very closely," said Marco Bohnhoff of the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam. Whether the current shocks have made the expected big earthquake more likely, can not be said yet, the expert continued. It is also possible that the risk has decreased.

Danger by four-meter slide

The North Anatolian Fault is a total of more than 1000 kilometers long and extends from eastern Anatolia over the Black Sea coast, the Sea of ​​Marmara to the North Aegean. Heavy earthquakes of more than seven on the Richter scale have cost 20,000 lives along the fault since the beginning of the 20th century, reports the GFZ.

Only in the area under the Sea of ​​Marmara to the south of Istanbul had there been no such strong earthquake for 250 years. As a result, extreme tensions have built up there.

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Satellite image of the week: snapshots from space

Only in July 2019, researchers from the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel published a study in which they have analyzed the plate boundary under the Sea of ​​Marmara in more detail. Accordingly, the Eurasian and Anatolian plate are hooked underground. Instead of moving past each other about two centimeters a year, the plates are stuck together.

If this tension dissipates, the plates could move forward by more than four meters in one fell swoop. A quake of magnitude 7.1 to 7.4 would be the result, the researchers warn. But it would also be possible that the voltage built up in several small quakes discharges. However, the Kiel experts can not predict when and how the plates will be released from their current position.

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2019-09-30

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