guest Post
It was probably the most embarrassing moment in the debate over the last few weeks about German climate policy: in front of the camera, the Minister of the Environment is asked which emission budget the government is planning. First, Svenja Schulze (SPD) tries to avoid the question, pointing to the goal of 2050 greenhouse gas neutral. On multiple requests (see video below linked tweet) she finally says: "Under all these tons, but no one can imagine!"
How much #greenhouse gas may Germany still consume? The # Federal Government is silent. Contrasts has now researched the number. And lo and behold: The #Klimapaket misses the climate targets even more drastic than known! #allesfuersklima pic.twitter.com/BhuY77HeBk
- Contrasts (@ARDContrasts) September 30, 2019However, it is precisely this "total tonnage" that is important, as reported in the IPCC reports: the extent of global warming increases in proportion to the total amount of CO2 emissions. If we want to limit the heating of the earth to a certain temperature, this will result in a still permissible residual amount of CO2 emissions for humanity: the emissions budget. Everyone can look up the numbers in a table in last year's IPCC report.
The demands of "Fridays for Future" - Germany are based on these scientifically founded figures. How many of our Members of the Government, our Members, know and understand them? Which of them has at least read the summary for decision-makers in recent IPCC reports? The students are right: those who do not seriously deal with this by the government are refusing to work.
Humanity will have 580 billion tons of CO2
The underlying calculation is brutally simple: not to exceed 1.5 degrees of global warming (we have already reached 1.1 degrees), since the beginning of 2018 humanity can still emit 580 billion tons of CO2. Since we blow up more than 40 billion tonnes of it every year, we only have just under 500 gigatonnes left. We could continue to do so for twelve years as we have done so far - rather shorter, because global emissions are still rising.
This is another reason why it is so absurd that the federal government's climate package will have no significant effect, at least in the next six years (for a detailed analysis of how scientists rate the climate package, read here). The time to "take people along" and slowly prepare for the necessary actions has had the government for many years - and playful. Now she is gone.
more on the subject
Consider the hard, binding goal of the Paris Agreement: to stop the warming well below two degrees (which is clearly forgotten, but in Paris was the prerequisite for the consent of many nations to the climate treaty). Suppose that means 66 percent less than 1.75 degrees. According to the IPCC table, we still have 800 billion tons available since the beginning of 2018, which is just under 720 billion tons from now. And that's a generous assumption: The IPCC points out that this budget could be even smaller by around 100 billion tons.
How much of this residual budget each country claims is as important as it is unexplained. In the Paris Agreement, there is only one basic principle of equitable distribution: common but differentiated responsibility. In general, this is understood to mean that the industrial nations have to tighten their belts even more, because they have caused the largest share of the previous CO2 emissions.
Germany is particularly committed to the tight emissions budget
Which emissions budget does the federal government spend on Germany? Frau Schulze did not want to reveal it. But it is easy to deduce from the German climate targets. Even if the Federal Government consistently adheres to its targets for 2030 (55% below 1990) and 2040 (70% below 1990) and Germany becomes completely carbon neutral in 2050, from the beginning of 2019 until climate neutrality, we will achieve a total of around 13 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions.
more on the subject
Specifically, this means that we spend almost twice as much on the carbon budget as our share of the world population (1.1%). This is also the case with our current emissions: these are twice as high per capita as in the world average.
On what grounds does the Federal Government want to continue claiming this disproportionate CO2 emissions? Hardly any emerging or developing country should consider this just. In any case, this has little to do with the special responsibility of the industrialized countries to solve the climate crisis, as it is meant in the Paris Agreement. Probably because this can not be justified, the government prefers nobly silent about the claimed emission budget.
The Environmental Council SRU - an official advisory body of the Federal Government - recently in an open letter, the Climate Cabinet pointed out what a fair emissions budget for Germany would look like: 7.3 billion tonnes from early 2019 (6.6 from the beginning of 2020), such as shown in the following graphic. The Federal Government's second relevant advisory body, the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), has already submitted a report on the emissions budgets (whose co-author I was) a decade ago.
Source: Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf / DER SPIEGEL
Emission budget for Germany agreed with the Paris Agreement as recommended by the Environment Council (red, from 2019) compared to the federal government's climate targets. If the federal government follows the environmental council, the federal government would have to save 40 million tons of CO2 a year - a reduction five times faster than in the past thirty years. These figures only refer to CO2, which accounts for 88 percent of German greenhouse gas emissions, other greenhouse gases are not included here.
The "Scientists for Future" - a consortium of numerous scientists from Germany, Austria and Switzerland - have demanded transparency from the Climate Cabinet on what global emissions budget the government emanates and what proportion of Germany claims it.
Some countries, such as Denmark and the UK, are already faring on climate protection, many less on course than Germany. Of course, Germany alone can not stabilize the climate in order to protect us from increasing floods in our cities, deadly heat waves, devastating droughts, the drying up and burning of our forests and the erosion of our coasts.
more on the subject
That's why the Paris Agreement is so important to protecting the people of our country. To undermine this agreement by tacitly disobeying it, despite all lip service, would be fatal.
So, let's face it and finally discuss seriously about "all those tons" nobody can imagine. Because that's exactly what the future of our children and grandchildren depends on over many generations.
