Most states' plans for the Paris Agreement on Climate Change are not enough, according to a new report, to curb the accelerating global warming.
Almost three-quarters of the 184 greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments submitted by countries are therefore not ambitious enough. Measured against the goal of reducing emissions of climate-damaging substances by at least 40 percent by 2030, only the 28 EU states and seven other countries are on course. This results from an evaluation of five researchers, four of whom have already worked for the IPCC.
At the same time, more than 11,000 scientists, including some 900 from Germany, warn in a joint declaration against a global "climate emergency". If human behavior in greenhouse gas emissions and other factors favoring climate change does not fundamentally and persistently change, it is said that "unspeakable human suffering" is unavoidable. "Scientists have a moral duty to warn humanity of any catastrophic threat," said co-author Thomas Newsome of the University of Sydney.
In their article in the journal BioScience, the researchers demand changes in six areas in particular:
- Switch to renewable energy,
- Reduction of emissions of substances such as methane and soot,
- better protection of ecosystems such as forests and bogs,
- Consumption of more vegetable and less animal products,
- sustainable change in the global economy and
- Halt the growth of the world population.
You might also be interested in
In the Paris Agreement, almost all countries in the world have set the goal of limiting global warming to well below two degrees and preferably 1.5 degrees, in order to curb catastrophic consequences such as heat waves and droughts, extreme rainfall and rising sea levels. If it continued as before, the rise at the end of this century would probably be around three degrees.
It has long been clear that the overall national climate change plans are not enough to curb global climate change. Therefore, every five years they should be sharpened. In 2020, the time has come to decide on new measures.
It is determined which state has to provide what proportion. As a general rule, rich industrialized countries and those that historically have contributed much to climate change must shoulder more responsibility. The next climate conference will take place in the first half of December in Madrid. Earlier, the previously planned host had canceled Chile because of domestic problems.
More about the climate crisis
"The pledges are simply too little and too late," said co-author Robert Watson, to 2002 on the board of the IPCC, published by the US organization Universal Ecological Fund report on climate change objectives. "Even if all voluntary climate commitments are fully implemented, they will only achieve half of what is needed to limit the acceleration of climate change in the next decade."
The focus of the authors is on four nations, which together emit more than half of the world's greenhouse gases:
- China,
- India,
- the USA
- and Russia.
The most populous country, China, has a share of around 27 percent - and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases there continue to increase due to economic growth, the report said. So far, Beijing has only said that they should not increase to the same extent as the gross domestic product. This also applies to India, which accounts for seven percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, in the opinion of observers, China often stabs deep into climate protection and then delivers better results.
Meanwhile, the US has officially dismissed international efforts to tackle climate change: The US government has submitted its denunciation for the Paris Climate Agreement, Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo said Monday.
"Continue as before"
The original pledges from the United States, with over 13 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, are still considered "dormant" by the authors of the report - but current policies are not enough. Russia, whose share is just under five percent, have not yet submitted any plans. After all, the country formally joined the Paris Agreement in September.
The 28 EU states together account for nine percent - and are on track with their plans, according to the report. By 2030, CO2 emissions could be 58 percent below 1990 levels. In addition, the authors rate only Iceland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, Moldova, Switzerland and the Ukraine as countries whose current commitments are sufficient at the present time.
"Although we have been negotiating globally for 40 years, we have continued as before and have not addressed this crisis," said William Ripple, who leads the merger of more than 11,000 scientists with his colleague Christopher Wolf of Oregon State University in the United States. "Climate change is here and it's accelerating faster than many scientists expected."
