While China is making great efforts to develop and produce e-cars, Europe is simply stuck and could even be left behind on electromobility. This is the result of a study commissioned by the left MEP Martin Schiredewan. The study was carried out by Matteo Gaddi and Nadia Garbellini from Italy's Claudio Sabattini Foundation, which is close to the union. The numbers in the 89-page paper read soberly:
- The number of electric cars in the EU in 2018 was only around five million. Based on data from the auto industry and the EU member states, the EU Commission still estimated in 2017 that between 9 and 20 million electric cars would be on Europe's roads by 2020, and 40 to 70 million by 2025. The federal government had already announced in 2009 that one million electric cars should drive on Germany's roads by 2020.
The authors of the study criticize the goal. For Stefan Bratzel, director of the Center of Automotive Management (CAM), the guidelines were never realistic. The state and the manufacturers would not have taken electromobility seriously until 2016, explains Bratzel. "That's why you're lagging behind now." It was only the diesel scandal that changed behavior: "The diesel scandal acted as a catalyst for e-mobility by creating political pressure." Today there is therefore a real change in manufacturers, which is particularly noticeable at Volkswagen, says Bratzel.
The CAM director considers the prerequisites for a market ramp-up from 2020 to be good - but the original goals could probably still not be achieved. "In the best case, electric cars will make up 20 to 25 percent of new EU registrations in 2025, which would be about four million cars a year," says Bratzel - not enough for a stock of at least 40 million electric cars.
- However, electric mobility is not only lagging behind in terms of absolute figures, the study also shows that the market share of electric cars is still low. In 2018, 385,000 pure Stromer and plug-in hybrid copies were sold in Europe. This corresponds to a share of two percent of all new cars sold. In 2017, the share was 1.5 percent.
- The charging infrastructure is still weak. A problem: While around half of the public points in China are quick-charging stations, batteries at most European stations are filled slowly. "A major obstacle to the spread of electric cars," the authors write.
According to auto expert Bratzel, it is not only the charging infrastructure criticized by the study that is responsible for the small market share: "The market ramp-up depends on the so-called RIP problem: range, infrastructure, price." The range is closer to the 300 to 500 kilometers that customers demand. However, the charging infrastructure is not only lacking fast charging stations, according to Bratzel there is above all a need to catch up in terms of network density and the reliability of the stations. "As long as the infrastructure is not widely developed, electric cars are mainly only suitable as second cars for people with their own garage."
According to Bratzel, a nationwide charging infrastructure could also solve the problem of comparatively high prices - because then you wouldn't need such large batteries, since drivers would always find a free charging station nearby. Few charging points, however, require larger batteries, which in turn drives up the price. With around 130 euros per kilowatt hour of battery capacity, the CAM director says that the batteries, in particular, make the electric car more expensive. "This price has to decrease so that the vehicles can be sold without government subsidies."
- According to the study, China's share of the global e-car fleet rose from 39 to 45 percent between 2017 and 2018 alone. Last year there were 2.3 million electric vehicles in the country, 1.1 million in the USA, but only 960,000 in the EU.
- The automotive industry also invested 45 percent in China. This also applies to German companies: VW and Mercedes, for example, each wanted to spend half of their expenditure - most of it on batteries - in China. Germany should still get just under a quarter of the total investment, but there is hardly anything left for all other EU countries: France only gets 3.5 percent of the investment, the others even less.
- The EU is hopelessly left behind in battery manufacturing . The EU Commission published a report in April that only three percent of global battery production is located in Europe, while 85 percent in Asia. There is a risk that Europe will "irreversibly fall behind its competitors" and become dependent on battery imports.
"China is the most important car market, which is why manufacturers mainly invest there," says Bratzel. However, the low level of investment in battery production in Europe also has another cause: the high costs for production and energy, which make previous production sites such as France, Spain or Italy unattractive. "Germany is an exception here due to the short distances and the high political pressure," explains Bratzel. "The planned Tesla factory could turn out to be a stroke of luck and could have a symbolic effect for the suppliers."
However, it is also decisive for further investments by the manufacturers whether Volkswagen is successful with its pure electrical platform, the modular electrical construction kit. Bratzel explains that BMW, Daimler and PSA still rely on multifunction platforms in which electric and combustion drives can be installed - because up to now they lack the courage to use pure electrical platforms. Only when it is clear that electromobility works economically will all manufacturers switch. "But that won't be the case until 2025."
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And even with large investments by the manufacturers, a problem would remain. "Direct employment in the auto industry will decrease due to electromobility," explains Bratzel. These job losses at manufacturers and suppliers would have to be cushioned, otherwise the social upheavals could endanger the goals of climate policy, said Bratzel.
