To ask the question of deconfinement is in fact to wonder about the state of the epidemic and its evolution. Its natural dynamics are known: the number of infected people doubles every 3 to 4 days. Lethality is estimated at around 1% (as long as resuscitation services are not overwhelmed). But what impact does containment have on the spread of the virus? And what would be the mortality if the hospital services were overwhelmed or if we ran out of medicines essential to the management of the most serious cases? It is with these parameters that the government must juggle today, and with reduced visibility.
Read also: For the first time, Philippe evokes the phase of deconfinement
To date, the best indicator of the evolution of the epidemic remains the daily number of deaths. However, there is a three-week lag between the time a person is infected and the time they die. This inertia makes any political steering extremely complex. Can modellers help to see more clearly? It is complicated.
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