Attack in Niger: "All indicators point to ISIS"

No claim had yet been received on Tuesday August 11, two days after the attack which left eight dead, including six French, on Sunday August 9 in the Kouré reserve in Niger. In this region, jihadists affiliated with Al-Qaeda and Islamic State terrorist organizations are increasingly active. For Wassim Nasr, journalist from France 24 specializing in jihadist networks and author of the book “Islamic State, the accomplished fact”, published by Plon in 2016, the Daesh subsidiary represents the main track in this slaughter.

What forces are there in the area of ​​the Kouré reserve where Sunday's attack took place?

WASSIM NASR. To fully understand this attack, we must not dissociate what is happening in Niger from the neighboring countries, Burkina Faso and Mali. This is called “the three border zone” and its immediate surroundings, where we can distinguish two groups: Al-Qaeda and a subsidiary of the Islamic State. The local armies have been forced to withdraw from the borders and be completely absent at night, so the jihadists have a fairly significant freedom of action. France decided in January to put the package together, so it is the French forces which are spearheading against these two groups. The two entities are themselves in conflict with each other, which gives rise to bloody fights.

Do the two groups have the same methods?

No, they have two totally different modus operandi when it comes to Western nationals. The main difference is in the taking of hostages. Al-Qaeda would have done so. It is not that ISIS does not have the will to do so, but rather that they lack the logistical means to support the continued detention of a hostage. Immediately after the attack, one of my Al Qaeda contacts in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) told me that they denied any involvement. Which leaves ISIS as the first suspect. This suspicion is reinforced by the fact that this is their area of ​​action. The other major difference is that Al Qaeda is more calculating. While it's hard to talk about rules, this group generally doesn't tackle these kinds of targets that way. This is because they have tacit agreements with the locals. They will, for example, not attack tourists so that their convoys can pass through certain areas and indirectly benefit from the local financial windfall. They are much more in a form of local politics that goes hand in hand with violence. This is less the case with the Islamic State for the moment, which only uses violence. That is why all the indicators point to them.

Why has there not been a claim yet?

We do not know exactly, but it has happened in the past that they are slow to claim actions. For example, on October 4, 2017, four US soldiers and five Nigerien servicemen were killed in an ambush in Tongo Tongo, a village in southwestern Niger, near Mali. ISIS only claimed responsibility for the attack years later in a video. There are no rules. Even though this reserve is one of the busiest in Niger and has not been attacked before, it falls within ISIS's level of action. They were not ordinary tourists, they had local guides. They were in a vehicle of the NGO for which they worked. The jihadists therefore know that there are representatives of a western zone. Even just destroying the vehicle is sending a message. Unfortunately, it fell on them.