Without strong measures, in two weeks the deaths from Covid-19 could exceed 400: physicist Giorgio Parisi, of the Sapienza University of Rome, tells ANSA.
"In the last 20 days the number of cases has been doubling every week - he notes - and for a week the number of deaths has been following that of cases".
The number of deaths began to double, with a delay of 7 days compared to the positive cases.
"What seems certain - continues Parisi - is that from the number of cases today we can trace the number of deaths in a week. For example, the number of cases yesterday corresponds to about 200 deaths between one week and the following week. double further ".
Consequently, he added, "if the measures adopted a few days ago do not have effects, it will be difficult to avoid 400-500 deaths per day".
Considering this trend in the growth of the epidemic, discussed by Parisi also in the press, a proportional increase in hospitalizations in intensive care facilities is also foreseeable and in this way "there would be a risk of the collapse of the health system".
For this reason, according to the physicist, "measures must be taken with the utmost urgency to halt the increase in the spread of the epidemic. If the measures were too strong, after 10 to 15 days they could be reduced".
This is because "the effects of any measure on deaths are seen after 15 days".
For Parisi it is "difficult to say whether a weak or strong lockdown is necessary, but decisions must be made immediately"
