Now that containment has been decreed, all that remains is to wait for the epidemic to ebb… But how long will it take to see the start of an inflection of the curves?
If the dynamics of the virus's propagation are relatively predictable (with a few surprises, however, such as the sudden acceleration observed at the end of September), it is more difficult to anticipate the effect of the measures taken.
The example of the first spring wave can however help us to anticipate the effectiveness of this second confinement.
These models that convinced Emmanuel Macron to re-define
In the spring, it was not until the decrease in the number of new hospitalizations and intensive care admissions to be convinced of the effectiveness of confinement.
They began to decline at the beginning of April, that is to say after two weeks.
But the sometimes significant daily fluctuations (weekend catch-ups, statistical variability, etc.) are often difficult to interpret immediately.
The curve of the number of people in intensive care at a given time,
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