What impact will the new containment have on the circulation of the virus?
If the first mobility data already show a significant reduction in trips, without reaching the historically low levels recorded in the spring
,
it is far too early to know its impact on the epidemic curves.
Several scenarios are however explored in the latest models from the Institut Pasteur, piloted by Simon Cauchemez (member of the Scientific Council) and that
Le Figaro
was able to consult.
Read also:
"Four weeks of confinement will not be enough to spend Christmas as if nothing had happened"
During the first confinement, the reproduction rate of the virus, the famous parameter R0 which characterizes the theoretical dynamics of propagation of the virus in a non-immune population, had fallen from 2.9 to 0.7 before rising above 1 after deconfinement.
At the end of October, this R0 parameter was now between 1.45 and 1.85 depending on the region, according to these new models based on hospitalization data.
This is twice as much as during
This article is for subscribers only.
You have 75% left to discover.
Subscribe: 1 € the first month
Can be canceled at any time
Enter your email
Already subscribed?
Log in
