At the national level, the curve of the Covid-19 epidemic no longer shows an exponential trend, but rather linear.
The increase in the total number of new infected accumulated in the last week (+ 10%) is less than that of the previous week (+ 27%);
the total number of active infected (-8%) increased less than the previous week (+ 19%);
the number of new hospitalizations (+4537) is lower than that of the previous week (+6137) and of the previous week (+5520).
This is what emerges from the calculations made by the physicist Roberto Battiston, of the University of Trento.
"For the first time since September we have observed a very similar daily pattern of new positive cases between the last two weeks," Battiston told ANSA.
"For about three weeks - said Battiston - the observed growth rate has gradually slowed down, even if it is necessary to understand the possible presence of saturation effects in the data, as evidenced by several parts. In these days we also expect the effect of the decrees in place since 6 September ".
For the physicist, "the daily and weekly numbers are still very high and put the national health system under great pressure. The situation of the individual regions is very diversified: so if we can expect an improvement in the national average starting between the end of November and early December, it is really too early to assess the situation at Christmas. "
The lockdowns in progress should lead to an improvement in the situation but, he concluded, "it is necessary to wait a few more days before making other assessments. Italy is in the situation of most European countries".
