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UN Emergency Aid Coordinator Mark Lowcock: How We Can Prevent Climate-Related Disasters

2020-12-01T19:50:07.980Z


Climate change and conflict could result in more people being displaced, clean water becoming even scarcer, and humanitarian costs rising to US $ 20 billion a year by 2030. We can do something about it.


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California forest fire, October 2020

Photo: Jae C. Hong / dpa

Today OCHA and the Federal Foreign Office present the forecast of global humanitarian needs for 2021.

The so-called Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) is the world's most comprehensive evidence-based assessment of the humanitarian situation and at the same time the largest humanitarian appeal for donations.

At the beginning of this year, nearly 170 million people around the world were in need of humanitarian aid.

Next year it will be 235 million - an increase of 40 percent.

The United Nations-coordinated humanitarian aid plans to help 160 million people in need in 56 countries in 2021, according to the GHO, at an estimated cost of 35 billion US dollars.

To person

Icon: enlarge Photo: Florian Gaertner / Photothek / Getty Images

Mark Lowcock

, born in 1962, has been Head of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Geneva and New York and UN Emergency Relief Coordinator since 2017.

This dramatic increase in demand is mainly due to the aftermath of COVID-19, which caused economic decline, exacerbated poverty and exacerbated hunger.

In many countries where people are already affected by conflict and natural disasters, the pandemic has multiplied existing suffering.

Of the 20 countries that were hardest hit by climate change last year, almost all of them also experienced conflict, violence or instability - and they all had their own humanitarian aid plan.

In the past decade, extreme weather events have killed more than 410,000 people.

Another 1.7 billion people - that is two in nine people worldwide - are directly affected, most of them in countries with low average incomes.

Heat waves, droughts, storms and floods have destroyed countless lives, livelihoods and future prospects.

Climate change will cause serious suffering again and again.

If we do nothing, the number of people in need of humanitarian aid due to climate change could double to over 200 million a year.

The dual effects of climate change and conflict could mean displacing another billion people by mid-century, more than a third of countries lacking water to meet their needs, and humanitarian costs to 20 billion by 2030 US dollars are increasing every year.

But there is good news: we can do something about it.

From today on, we must meet our commitments to stop climate change and take climate-positive action.

We have to invest in green jobs, refuse to bail out environmentally harmful industries, end subsidies for fossil fuels, think about climate risks in all financial and political decisions, work together and, above all, leave no one behind.

When it comes to humanitarian aid, we can anticipate extreme weather events.

With the help of data and forecasting, we can predict these events and their impact on the most vulnerable people and act before a storm hits, a drought decimates crops or floods destroy villages.

Instead of watching the suffering unfold before asking for financial help, we need to manage these shocks before they turn into crises.

However, this requires change.

Instead of watching the suffering unfold before asking for financial help, we need to manage these shocks before they turn into crises.

Data can trigger the allocation of predetermined funds for previously agreed relief measures.

This approach makes humanitarian aid faster, earlier, cheaper and more dignified.

In this way we can also protect the achievements of development cooperation and achieve more with limited financial resources.

This is pragmatic, wise, and a moral imperative.

If we can predict that life is in danger, waiting is not an option.

Take Bangladesh, for example.

In July of this year, it was predicted that extreme monsoon floods would wipe out large areas of the Jamuna river basin within 10 days.

With the support of the German Federal Government and other donors, the United Nations Central Emergency Aid Fund immediately made financial resources available.

Before the floods, more than 220,000 people received aid, including cash, pet food, storage bins, and health and hygiene items.

Compared to a similar disaster last year, we reached more people faster and at half the price.

Above all, we have helped risk groups - especially women and girls - to cope with the crisis in their own way.

We have also taken this forward-looking approach to protect the people of Somalia from a triple shock from floods, locusts and COVID-19 this year.

This enabled us to cut the time it takes to dispose of aids by a third and reduce the outbreak rate of diseases such as malaria and respiratory infections compared to previous crises.

A recent study by the Overseas Development Institute estimates that more than half of all humanitarian crises are at least partially predictable, and 20 percent are very predictable.

However, less than one percent of all humanitarian fundraising funds go to forward-looking measures.

A study by the World Food Program found that every dollar spent on predictive aid cuts the cost of regular humanitarian aid by $ 3 and generates more than $ 2.5 in socio-economic value for those affected.

We need to change our understanding of disasters - away from a linear and static view towards a dynamic concept of the various effects.

Forward-looking humanitarian aid can take many forms.

The experiences of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Food Program, the Red Cross and non-governmental organizations of the Start Network show what works where.

OCHA plans to expand the pilot projects from Bangladesh and Somalia to Chad, Ethiopia, Malawi and other parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

We also work with companies to develop a predictive insurance product that pays off before a shock occurs to prevent losses from occurring in the first place.

We are gaining valuable insights into what the humanitarian system needs to do in order for predictive aid to work, especially in response to climate change.

  • First, we need flexible and agile financial instruments that don't wait for reality to fit the model.

    When we work with risk, we don't always have a perfect answer, but it is better to act on a "no-regret" basis than not to act at all.

  • Second, crises affect all aspects of living together - health, education, the economy - and so must our proactive measures.

    In order to recognize the "tipping point", we have to change our understanding of disasters - away from a linear and static view towards a dynamic concept of the various effects, such as deteriorating animal health through to rising food prices.

  • Third, we need to focus on the effects.

    Our focus needs to be on choosing the right actions with the greatest impact, rather than being distracted by the tempting promises of technology.

  • Fourth, we need to incorporate data-driven decisions into our current architecture in order to anchor predictive action across the humanitarian system.

    For example, we can incorporate risk analysis into our planning, coordination and funding systems - the same systems that support the annual global humanitarian foresight that we publish today.

Finally, international donors must increase their contributions to predictive humanitarian aid and provide adequate funding in a predictable and flexible manner.

If we do not increase funding now, we will face problems of much greater magnitude in the future.

However, predictive aid for climate disasters in fragile contexts cannot be reserved exclusively for humanitarian organizations.

International financial institutions and development partners must also be one step ahead of the global climate crisis.

I would like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and others to release their crisis funds before disasters occur and direct a much larger part of their funding to low-income and particularly vulnerable countries.

Countries exposed to the dual disaster of COVID-19 and climate change need more ambitious development organizations and international financial institutions.

If we do not increase funding now, we will face problems of much greater magnitude in the future.

Germany plays an important role as a financier and thought leader, and I am extremely grateful for his support.

The whole world is shocked by the unprecedented shock of COVID-19.

The GHO calls for the world to come together to support those affected and to help people help themselves through collective action and determination.

Climate change poses an equally great threat to humanity. But it doesn't have to throw us off course if we take the warning signs seriously.

Anticipating the global crisis is the only smart and moral thing to do.

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Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2020-12-01

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