The pressure on the French health system should ease in mid-2021, if the most vulnerable third of the population has been vaccinated at this time, said epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet in an interview with the Journal du dimanche.
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"
The first three months of 2021 will be painful because winter will be in full swing without being able to feel, at the collective level, the expected benefits of vaccination
", which begins at the end of December, said Arnaud Fontanet, of the 'Pastor Institute.
The epidemiologist, member of the Scientific Council which advises the government, estimated that "
when vulnerable people, a third of the population, have been vaccinated in number, probably at the end of the first half of the year, the pressure should ease
" .
He was immediately worried about the maintenance on a "
high plateau
" of the number of daily admissions of Covid-19 patients in hospitals.
“
It has stagnated at 1,500 admissions per day for three weeks.
On the eve of the holidays, this high plateau does not say anything good
”, according to him.
The French public health agency reported 1,004 admissions over 24 hours on Saturday.
The highest this week was Wednesday with 1,664 admissions.
Read also: Covid-19: the home, a major place of contamination
Prof. Fontanet ruled out any questioning of the measures to fight the pandemic before mid-January, because of "
the delay between contamination and possible hospitalization
".
“
The balance sheet of this high-risk period cannot be drawn before mid-January,
” he said.
He also returned to the study called ComCor, conducted at the end of October / beginning of November, and of which he is the main author, on the role of restaurants and bars in contamination.
"
The most important result is that nearly half of those infected [44%] know the person who transmitted the virus to them,
" said Prof. Fontanet.
This study “also confirms that family and friendly gatherings play a major role in transmission
, and especially meals
”.
