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Covid: Battiston, 5 regions in the middle of the second wave

2021-01-04T10:59:05.370Z


Ten in the descending phase, 6 passed it. Rt index at 0.99 (ANSA)


Regions at different speeds, with five still in the middle of the second epidemic wave, ten in the descending phase and six that have substantially passed the second wave, while at the national level the Rt index, which indicates how many people is "is 0.99 and is growing" they can be infected by an individual who has the infection.

This is the picture that emerges from the calculations of the physicist Roberto Battiston, of the University of Trento.



"Rt is very useful for reporting a trend" but, according to Battiston, "it cannot be sufficient by itself to have a complete epidemiological picture for the management of the epidemic. The identification of the red, yellow and orange areas starts from the value of the 'Rt index, but it must also consider the degree of development of the epidemic in the area - observes Battiston - as the number of positive cases in the region must also be included in the evaluation: they are the two values ​​together that determine how quickly the epidemic can spread and allow to evaluate the risk of saturating the local health system ".



Among the regions, Veneto, Sardinia, Puglia, Marche and Trentino have not yet reached the maximum or are not yet significantly decreasing while Basilicata records a reduction of only 6%.

In these regions, still in the midst of the second epidemic wave, the number of currently infected has increased, compared to the end of September, from 8.6 times in Sardinia to 25 times in Veneto.

The latter region was yellow, like Sardinia and Trentino, according to the indications contained in the ordinance of 6 November;

Puglia, Marche and Basilicata were instead orange.



Ten regions, from Campania and Emilia Romagna, to Calabria, are in the descending phase of the second wave, albeit at different speeds, which compared to 27 November recorded a decrease ranging from 9% in the autonomous province of Bolzano to 37% Abruzzo, with an increase in the number of infected in progress compared to 29 September which goes from 10.5 times in Lazio to 19.4 times in the autonomous province of Bolzano.



Finally, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont, Tuscany, Umbria and Valle d'Aosta have substantially overcome the second wave, with a reduction in cases from the peak that goes from 62% in Piedmont to 68% in Liguria, Lombardy and Umbria;

compared to 29 September there are still 2.8 times more cases in Tuscany up to 7.4 times more cases in Umbria

Analysis of the sation n regions as of January 3, 2021. Rt calculated by Roberto Battiston (source: Roberto Battiston)

Source: ansa

All tech articles on 2021-01-04

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