“
All the scenarios are on the table
” but “
no decision has been taken
”, declared the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, Sunday, January 24.
Faced with the epidemic that does not abate and the threat of more contagious variants, a turn of the screw is announced for the days to come.
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First announced Wednesday, January 27, Emmanuel Macron's speech should take place a little later, according to France Info.
The president would like to have more time to assess the effects of the 6 p.m. curfew, and ultimately to measure the new restrictions imposed.
Le Figaro
takes stock of the scenarios considered.
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An extended curfew
This first scenario would consist of extending the measures currently in force.
This choice, combined with an obligation to telework when possible and which would keep schools open, would allow the French to continue working, while limiting social interactions.
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This scenario can only be envisaged if the first returns to the effectiveness of the 6 p.m. curfew are favorable.
In an interview with
Le
Parisien
published Sunday, January 24, the Minister of Health had said to wait "
to be fixed on the effects of the curfew
".
Last week, however, he argued that the first effects were being felt especially in the departments where he had been advanced to 6 p.m. at the start of the year.
Lighter confinement
In the same interview, Olivier Véran also clarified that if the effects of the curfew were not sufficient to limit the spread of the virus, the government would take “
additional measures
”.
And to prevent: "
This is called confinement
".
Containment as in November is likely.
If companies are encouraged to use telework, it will still be possible to get to work for those who cannot do otherwise.
Schools would continue to welcome students, not only so as not to weaken their learning but also to allow their parents to work during the day.
If the lightened confinement was enacted, "
the limitation of outings and trips should therefore again be accompanied by a partial closure or a reduction in the opening hours of 'non-essential shops'
", confided on Sunday January 24 a advisor to the Élysée in
Le Journal du Dimanche
.
Extended holidays
Extending school holidays is another solution being considered.
The President of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy, put forward the idea on Sunday January 24 at the microphone of BFMTV.
The idea would be to merge the holidays of the three zones from February 6 to March 1, in order to extend this period of less social interaction.
"
This would make it possible
to meet at the beginning of March in better conditions to reopen the schools and above all to monitor them,
" he explains.
This solution would prevent children from going to school, without disrupting the pace of school too long.
However, it raises the issue of childcare during these three weeks and the consequences for their parents' work.
Read also: Covid-19: towards extended school holidays?
Containment for people at risk
Confining the most fragile people is a hypothesis put on the table but it divides within the government.
The concept of equality before the law could also block this solution.
It is based on the very low death rate among the youngest.
In France, the 75 and over represent 75% of hospital deaths;
those under 44, less than 2%.
This solution could turn into an incentive to self-containment.
Jean-François Delfraissy has already advised the most vulnerable people about this solution on BFMTV.
“
In the next two months, the recommendation for the oldest, most fragile people,
[is]
to move towards a form of voluntary self-isolation, wanted on their part, to protect themselves from variants while waiting for them to be vaccinated,
”he pleaded.
Read also: Covid-19: the idea of confinement of people at risk resurfaces
Strict containment
The hypothesis of a confinement like the one experienced in France in the spring is not totally excluded, even if it seems little privileged by the government as its economic and social consequences could be dramatic.
This choice would have the advantage of drastically reducing social interactions and, with them, the circulation of the virus.
But the economy would struggle to recover from such a paralysis.
