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VW, BMW, Mercedes and Co .: How automakers are saying goodbye to the combustion engine

2021-02-10T13:46:48.728Z


GM boss Mary Barra has startled the auto industry: From 2035 the group will no longer build cars with gasoline or diesel engines. Other manufacturers shy away from such a clear statement. Some dawdle, others are even more radical.


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Future model of electric drive?

Not all manufacturers are planning to phase out combustion engines

Photo: Oliver Killig / Volkswagen

The move announced by General Motors boss Mary Barra surprised many: From 2035, the US group only wants to offer emission-free cars and to become CO₂-neutral by 2040.

The group hit the zeitgeist, so several countries and regions have decided to phase out the combustion engine - including California, the most important car market in the USA.

From 2035, no new cars that run on diesel or gasoline will be sold there.

That seems to fit in perfectly with GM's plans.

But experts have already pointed out back doors that GM is leaving open.

This includes that heavy vehicles are excluded from the project.

The fact that the company used the word "strive" at a crucial point aroused suspicion.

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The pattern is well known.

Several automakers have recently attracted attention by announcing green goals.

On closer inspection, however, some of the messages turn out to be air numbers.

Volvo is probably unmatched in this respect.

The Swedes announced in 2017 that they would only build electric and hybrid cars from 2019 - some media rated this as a "historic decision".

It almost went under that the company also meant the less revolutionary mild hybrid drives.

So how radically are the individual car companies actually breaking away from the dirty present?

Since GM's announcement, no other manufacturer has ventured out of cover with such a clear statement.

But there are also far-reaching plans for the drive turnaround at VW, BMW, Daimler and Co. Anyone who takes a closer look at them will discover a lot of hot air and caution.

But also real ambitions, including at - Volvo.

The overview:

Volvo: Unofficial dropout

When is the exit coming?

Officially not at all - but company boss Samuelsson said he would be surprised if Volvo weren't a pure electric car manufacturer by 2030.

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The Volvo XC40 Recharge is the first battery-electric Volvo and, with 300 kilowatts and 660 Nm of torque, offers an unexpectedly high level of power - just as much as the Group's Tesla hunter, the Polestar 2

Photo: Volvo

The way to lower emissions:

Volvo's goals are astonishingly specific.

By 2025, half of the cars sold should be purely electric.

How ambitious is the goal?

This new plan is indeed ambitious.

"Volvo has set itself the most ambitious and most verifiable goal," says Peter Mock of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), an environmental think tank, "even if no firm plan to phase out combustion is planned." In four years it will be clear whether it will be Volvo Can keep promises - and also whether you could convince customers to switch to an electric car.

Renault: An important intermediate step in 2025

When is the exit coming?

Even with the French there is a real exit target, at best unofficial.

Company boss Luca de Meo told the Financial Times that he expected the group to sell its last combustion vehicle in Europe between 2030 and 2035.

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With the Zoe, Renault had a battery car in its range early on.

The car was at the top of the European electric car sales statistics in 2020.

Photo: Nissan

The way to lower emissions: In

2025, 30 percent of the cars sold should be purely electric, 35 percent with hybrid drives.

Until then, the company is aiming for the greenest drive mix of all manufacturers in Europe, said a spokeswoman.

By 2050, the CO2 footprint in Europe should be zero.

How ambitious is the goal?

It's high - and important for the industry.

"The goal of 30 percent battery vehicles by 2025 is less ambitious than Volvo's, but more important given the size of the company," said Mock.

He sees the French manufacturer ahead of General Motors.

"Although Renault is not planning to phase out combustion, the goal is to be rated higher than that of GM, because there is a short-term, verifiable goal and emissions are falling quickly," says the ICCT expert.

In 2035, if you take this route, you are most likely with an electric share of almost 100 percent - Renault wants to say goodbye in installments, without an officially announced »Adieu«.

Porsche: Run out of diesel

When is the exit coming?

Porsche has withdrawn from the diesel, but the gasoline engine continues to be a drive with a future for the sports car manufacturer - so it will continue for the time being.

The group does not name an expiry date.

Company boss Oliver Blume told »Bild am Sonntag« that by »the end of the decade, more than 80 percent of our sports cars will be electrically powered - as hybrids or fully electric."

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The Taycan is Porsche’s electric hope.

He should fight for the brand a place in the electric luxury class - with four doors and a silhouette that is vaguely reminiscent of the 911.

The car scores, of course, especially with its sporty performance.

Photo: Porsche

The way to lower emissions:

A triad of electric drive, efficient gasoline and plug-in hybrids should fix it.

In 2025, around 50 percent of the manufacturer's vehicles will be partially or fully electric, Porsche said on request.

At the same time, the manufacturer is relying on e-fuels, i.e. synthetic fuel that is generated with the help of electricity.

The manufacturer wants to become completely CO2-neutral "as quickly as possible" - at this point the manufacturer remains very cloudy.

How ambitious is the goal?

It's partly ambitious, but with some drawbacks.

Controversial plug-in hybrids of unknown size are included here.

As a result, the goal is less demanding than Volvo's, says ICCT expert Peter Mock.

"It is questionable that a luxury brand that brings many e-cars onto the market is committed to inefficient e-fuels - especially because the parent company publicly complains about these fuels," says Mock of the manufacturer's plans.

VW has so far been seen as an opponent of synthetic fuels.

E-fuels are used in combustion engines, so they give them a chance to survive.

BMW: From electrical pioneer to latecomer

When is the exit coming?

On request, BMW did not want to make any statements about the specific model range in 2035, and there is also no official expiry date for the combustion engine from the Munich-based company.

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The i3 was launched back in 2013 and made BMW an electric pioneer, but the futuristic design and narrow tires of the car did not convince all fans of the brand.

In 2021, BMW will be launching the i4, a more typical brand electric car.

Photo: BMW

The way to lower emissions:

BMW became an electric pioneer with the i3, but is also relying on the controversial plug-in hybrids for the future.

They use a lot of fuel in real operation.

By 2023, the share of plug-in hybrids and battery cars should be 20 percent worldwide, said BMW.

In 2020 it was eight percent.

The manufacturer also wants to have more than seven million electrified cars on the road by 2030, two thirds of which will be purely battery-powered cars.

How ambitious is the goal?

Mediocre - if you consider that BMW was an absolute electric early starter with the i3.

After all, there are concrete goals for Europe.

"At BMW, 50 percent of sales in Europe should be for battery-powered cars and plug-ins by 2030, which is an ambitious and above all verifiable goal," explains ICCT expert Mock.

Although this goal can be checked, it is comparatively far in the future.

Daimler: Farewell hurts

When is the exit coming?

Not at all at first.

Daimler has not made a decision to withdraw from the development of internal combustion engines, the company announced on request.

However, the manufacturer wants to achieve a completely CO2-neutral new car fleet by 2039.

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Mercedes is gradually bringing electric models such as the EQA onto the market, here at production in Rastatt.

The E version of the GLA offers a range of around 400 kilometers.

However, the EQS electric sedan is likely to become much more important for the group.

Photo: Mercedes-Benz AG - Global Communications Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans / Daimler

The way to lower emissions:

As with BMW, the magic word is xEV - this includes both battery cars (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV).

By 2030, xEV should "probably" make up more than half of sales - it remains unclear how this is broken down into the two types of drive.

Daimler also wants to reduce its internal combustion engine portfolio in the passenger car sector by up to 70 percent by 2030.

How ambitious is the goal?

More like a three minus.

The strategy for ICCT expert Peter Mock is similar to that of BMW - with one small disadvantage.

"In contrast to BMW, there are no short-term, verifiable targets for 2021 and 2025." The "original gangster" in the auto industry is obviously having a hard time saying goodbye to gasoline and diesel.

Volkswagen: All eyes on Audi

When is the exit coming?

Not at all, at least there is currently no year from Wolfsburg.

VW apparently fears that it will make itself unpopular.

Customers decide which car they want to drive.

They do not want to prescribe an exit date, explains the group.

This means that you are more defensive today than in 2018. At that time, chief strategist Michael Jost said that in 2026 "the last product launch on a combustion platform" would begin.

The last combustion model sold was then expected to be in the year 2040.

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The ID.3 is an important bearer of hope for VW.

However, the electric car had to struggle with all sorts of starting difficulties, especially with the software.

Nevertheless, the car made it into the top three of the best-selling e-cars in Europe.

Photo: Oliver Killig / Volkswagen

The way to lower emissions:

E-cars that are as attractive as possible should convince customers even without a fixed promotion plan.

The manufacturer also wants to become CO2-neutral by 2050 - but this goal can also be achieved with compensation payments.

In 2030, e-cars should account for more than 30 percent of the Group's total sales, in Europe and China at least 40 percent, VW announced on request.

Then the group also wants to be the largest manufacturer of cars with electric drives.

How ambitious is the goal?

Rather unspectacular in view of the large investments in e-cars.

"The VW Group's goal of achieving a 40 percent share of BEVs and PHEVs in sales by 2030 is not overly ambitious," says ICCT expert Mock.

Nevertheless, he sees the group on the right track.

VW had indicated several times that it would be open to stricter EU climate targets and higher proportions of electric vehicles.

"It is important that manufacturers not only announce goals, but are also ready to allow legal guard rails," says Mock.

VW is still on the way to e-mobility - and with the MEB electric platform, the group has a good basis for this.

A look at the Audi subsidiary is interesting.

The Ingolstadt dare - unofficially - further forward.

According to "Wirtschaftswoche", the brand plans to only offer cars with electric drives in ten to 15 years at the latest - and would be on par with GM.

Toyota: hydrogen march

When is the exit coming?

Japan's auto industry decided to end the combustion engine by 2050 as early as 2018, with one important exception: hybrid drives.

There are still no official plans for an actual combustion engine exit from the car giant Toyota.

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Battery vehicles are also available from Toyota, but so far mainly in China, such as the Toyota Izoa shown here, a sister model of the C-HR crossover available in Germany.

Photo: Toyota

The way to lower emissions:

By 2050, CO2 emissions are to be reduced by 90 percent compared to 2010, and by 2030, annual sales of electrified vehicles are expected to rise to more than 5.5 million units, according to company information.

This should include more than a million cars that drive purely electrically or with a fuel cell.

This should reduce the CO2 emissions of new Toyota vehicles by at least 35 percent compared to 2010.

How ambitious is the goal?

Above all, it is full of holes - even though Toyota has made a name for itself as a hybrid pioneer and is a pioneer in the field of fuel cells.

"Toyota wants to bring many electrified vehicles onto the market by 2030, but here the manufacturer usually includes conventional hybrids like the Prius." This technology is already in around 60 percent of the Group's vehicles sold today.

"This means that an exit that is actually not a real exit is within reach," says Mock.

According to the Handelsblatt, Toyota only calculates that ten percent of all models on offer will be fully electric in 2025 - so Toyota is not yet really convinced of the battery drive.

GM: Exit with back doors

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So far, the lonely electric pioneer at GM: The Chevrolet Bolt, which will soon be joined by an electric new edition of the Hummer off-road vehicle

Photo: Chevrolet

When is the exit coming?

By 2035, GM is aiming for zero emissions from its own cars - albeit with a few back doors, for example for pick-up trucks over 3.5 tons.

The way to lower emissions:

The group wants to offer 30 purely electric models globally by 2025, in the USA 40 percent of the models offered are to be battery vehicles by the end of 2025.

The Group's new Ultium platform is intended to help.

How ambitious is the goal?

There are a few loopholes in the plan.

The short-term goals in particular are not very ambitious.

Because whether 40 percent of the models on offer are battery-electric is of little relevance for the climate.

What matters is sales.

At the same time, zero emissions does not necessarily mean zero combustion engines, explains Peter Mock.

He sees the goal of zero local emissions from 2035 rather than zero net emissions.

"Then GM would not only have to offer purely electric cars, but could also make compensation payments for other combustion engines," said Mock.

Daimler also leaves this door open, albeit for the year 2039.

Nevertheless, GM scores points with its promise in the public perception, "since other manufacturers have so far been reluctant to announce fixed exit targets, whether with or without a back door," says Mock.

In the end, a binding exit date, like at General Motors, is not necessarily decisive for the drive turnaround.

Short term goals are more important than long term

"A short-term, ambitious goal for a high proportion of electric vehicles is better than a medium-term exit from combustion engines with loopholes as with GM," says ICCT expert Mock - and this is exactly where manufacturers like Volvo and Renault, but also Porsche, can score points in contrast to GM.

A relatively high proportion of electricity, for example, in 2025 would "inevitably lead to a very low proportion of combustion engines by 2035, regardless of a fixed phase-out date."

Icon: The mirror

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-02-10

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