In the coming years the global electric vehicle market could see a change at the top, with Tesla falling from its current 20% share to less than 10% in 2025.This would benefit Volkswagen which - on the brink of the offensive of the many ID models - could rise from 10% recorded in 2020 to 15% in 2025.
This was stated by the authoritative magazine Automotive News, citing a study by the analysis company LMC, which was presented in a recent online event by Pete Kelly, CEO of LMC.
"Tesla has been dominant as a brand for the past five years, but clearly it can't last - said Kelly - he cited what is called" onslaught of new VW Group electric models "but also new proposals from German premium brands Audi, BMW. and Mercedes as well as Toyota, which previously supported hybrid and fuel cell models.
100% electric vehicles were a commercial success during the coronavirus crisis, with global sales increasing by 27% in an overall market that fell by 14%.
Sales of electric models in Europe - Kelly said - "exceeded expectations, increasing by 105%" while in China the growth was only 13%.
In 2020 - details the independent analyst Matthias Schmidt - 727,000 fully electric vehicles were sold in Western Europe, double compared to 2019. LMC also recalls that several car manufacturers have formalized the expectation of gaining significant market shares in electric vehicles by 2025. These include Daimler which expects to grow from around 2.5% to 5% in 2025 but also Toyota (from 1% to around 5%), Ford (from almost zero to 4%) and GM ( from about 2% to almost 5%).
Analysts, on the other hand, do not foresee changes in the presence in the market of 100% electric models for the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance which is expected to maintain its share of 8%, as well as for Hyundai Motor Group (with the Hyundai and Kia brands) which holds about 7% of the EV market.
Chinese carmakers, including SAIC (which makes the MG brand sold in Europe) and BYD, are expected to lose significant global shares not so much due to an unexpected decline in the domestic market, but due to the sharp increase in competitor sales - first of all Volkswagen - in North America and Europe.
