The progress of the vaccination campaign against Covid-19 in France will not, without additional restrictions, prevent a jump in hospitalizations to a level above the peak of the first wave, estimates a study by the Institut Pasteur published on Wednesday .
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This rebound in hospitalizations, which has fallen slightly since the beginning of February, is linked to the progression of the variant of British origin of the coronavirus, estimated 50% more contagious than the historic strain.
It should represent the majority (56%) of new cases from March 1 and almost all (91%) a month later, according to the researchers' models.
On the assumption that 100,000 doses of vaccines per day would be distributed until April, then 200,000 thereafter,
"we expect to have 28% less hospitalizations on April 1, and 46% on May 1"
, compared to a scenario where there would be no vaccine available, explained to AFP Simon Cauchemez, responsible for mathematical models of infectious diseases at the institute.
“We see that vaccination”
has a real
“impact on the health system”
, but even if it
“succeeds very strongly in reducing the impact of variants”
, the situation will remain
“complicated without further reduction in transmission rates”
, he observes.
If the timing of this new peak is difficult to predict,
“in most scenarios we expect there to be a recovery”
.
The number of new hospitalizations could approach 4,500 per day, against around 3,750 at the peak of the first wave, and just over 2,500 for the second.
French hospitals have recorded 9,362 hospitalizations over the last seven days, according to Public Health France, an average of 1,337 per day.
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To avoid this situation,
"we have approaches which work well against the historic virus, but which risk being insufficient against the British variant"
, estimates Simon Cauchemez, referring in particular to the curfew, introduced at 8:00 p.m. on February 15 before d 'be gradually brought forward to 6:00 p.m. in January.
While the government announced localized containment over the weekend in the Alpes-Maritimes and Dunkirk, the team of researchers does not comment on the effectiveness of this or that measure.
But she notes that
"achieving significant reductions in the transmission rate would make it possible to crush the dynamics of the epidemic and have a restart later, at a time when more people will be vaccinated"
, underlines Simon Cauchemez.
