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Debate about conflicts: the climate crisis has reached the UN Security Council

2021-02-25T13:04:40.758Z


Because global warming could also fuel global conflicts, the issue has now reached the UN Security Council. There are new divisions between the states. The weekly overview of the climate crisis.


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We do not know, of course, whether Boris Johnson had anyone in mind when he made his opening statement, but one or two diplomats may have felt addressed: »I know that there are people all over the world who will say that all of this is green It's stuff from a bunch of tree-hugging tofu fans and has no place in international diplomacy, "said the British Prime Minister at the opening of a UN Security Council meeting on the climate crisis.

He himself, added Johnson, could "not more decisively contradict such an attitude."

That she seems to have supporters in the most important UN body should become clear in the course of the meeting.

Representatives from 15 countries discussed the possible effects of global warming on international security on Tuesday.

But already on the question of whether the body is responsible and what the effects of the climate crisis could be, they were divided.

For example, Prakash Javdekar, India's environment minister, made it clear that there was “no accepted methodology” to prove that climate change caused conflict, while China’s envoy Xie Zhenhua recognized that the climate crisis was becoming an “urgent and serious threat to survival , the development and security of mankind ”, but questioned whether and to what extent the Council should deal with the question.

Rather, "sustainable development is the key to solving all problems and removing the main causes of conflict," he said.

The most critical position was the Russian UN Ambassador Vassily A. Nebenzia, who expressed considerable doubts about the idea that rising global temperatures could even give rise to disputes which the UN Security Council would then have to deal with.

»We agree that climate change and environmental problems can exacerbate conflicts.

But are they really the main cause of these conflicts?

There are serious doubts about it, ”said Nebenzia.

"Mutual Suicide Pact"

John Kerry, US special envoy

The statements of the three countries - in a global comparison all heavyweights in the emission of greenhouse gases - were in clear contrast to the statements of Western states such as Great Britain or the USA.

It is perfectly clear that "climate change is a threat to our collective security and the security of our nations," said Boris Johnson.

If you don't take the threats of climate change seriously, "you march towards something that is almost a mutual suicide pact," said John Kerry, the new climate special envoy appointed by US President Joe Biden, on Tuesday.

"There is an urgent need to treat the climate crisis as the security threat it poses."

As a study by the peace research institute Sipri shows, the concrete consequences of the climate crisis could occupy the Security Council faster than some members would like.

As of December 2020, ten out of 21 active UN peace missions were in action in states that are considered to be particularly affected by the climate crisis.

Six of the ten largest UN operations in terms of personnel are also in such countries.

Recent studies have shown that the effects of global warming in these countries could have a significant impact on UN peace missions, said Sipri.

Climate crisis as a "threat multiplier"

A study by Susanne Dröge from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) in Berlin found in March last year that direct causalities between climate risks and violence, which the Security Council could focus on, are hardly known, and climate change - compared to other conflict risks - a subordinate factor for outbreaks of violence.

However, "it can interact strongly with them" and therefore acts as a "threat multiplier".

A large number of studies show the connections between the effects of climate change and violent conflicts or how these could intensify in the future.

In her investigation, Dröge refers to a report by the then UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who summarized in a report in 2009 how climate change could affect security:

  • The food supply is threatened, also by more extreme weather conditions

  • If climate change hinders the economic development of countries, it can endanger the stability of the state

  • Competition for increasingly scarce resources as a result of global warming and migration can lead to conflicts in the country and internationally

  • Because entire countries could disappear due to drought or floods, for example, the sovereignty of states and the rights of their citizens are at risk

Parts of the military - such as the US armed forces and NATO - have long been sensitized to the issue.

»I think climate change is a serious crisis multiplier and it really has an impact on our security.

We have to tackle this in a new strategic concept, ”said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg last week.

The meeting of the UN Security Council on Tuesday again underlined a fundamental problem of the body: mutual blockade.

The meeting did not produce a concrete result.

The fact that the Council even discussed it is a good sign.

What was noticeable at the UN meeting was once again the U-turn in climate policy in the USA after the Trump years.

As recently as July, the Americans blocked a German attempt to set up a UN early warning system for climate change-related conflicts.

The US representatives did not respond to a draft resolution in the Security Council and made it clear that they would not support the proposal.

This week John Kerry said: "The climate crisis is undeniably a Security Council issue" - the contrast could hardly be greater.

If you like, I will inform you once a week about the most important things about the climate crisis - stories, research results and the latest developments on the biggest topic of our time.

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American Air Force combat aircraft: "There is an urgent need to treat the climate crisis as the security threat it poses."

Photo by Senior Airman Keith Holcomb / 354th Fighter Wing Public Affair

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Published

Melting ice weakens the Gulf Stream

When it comes to the consequences of climate change, the so-called tipping elements are of enormous importance.

It is still unclear when one or more tipping points will be exceeded and entire environmental systems will change into a completely new state, such as the melting of the Greenland ice or the release of methane from the thawing permafrost.

Another important tipping element is the Gulf or North Atlantic Current, which warms Western Europe and is weakened by the increasing influx of fresh water from melting ice.

For this purpose, two Danish researchers tested possible future scenarios in a model and found that it is not just the scope of the changes that matters.

It was found that the rate at which freshwater enters the North Atlantic also plays an important role.

The faster this happened, the earlier the tipping point was exceeded.

"Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt"

Lohmann & Ditlevsen, 2021

PNAS



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Stay confident

Your Kurt Stukenberg

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-02-25

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