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Intensive care nurse for a Covid-19 patient
Photo: Robert Michael / dpa
The German intensive care physicians are pushing for the current lockdown to be extended until at least April 1.
"Otherwise the third wave will be difficult or impossible to control," warned Gernot Marx, President of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi) at a press conference.
On Thursday, Divi presented a new forecast model with which the occupancy of intensive care beds by Covid-19 patients in the coming months can be predicted in different scenarios.
According to the experts, the number of corona intensive care patients has fallen back to around 2900 compared to the beginning of the year.
In the worst-case scenario, however, it could jump back up to 25,000 by mid-May.
According to the model, this would apply in the event that far-reaching easing applies from March 7, which means that the R value, i.e. the average number of people infected by an infected person, is 1.2 for the original one Virus type lies.
Assuming that the virus mutant B.1.1.7, which first appeared in Great Britain, is 35 percent more contagious than the original type, its R value would then be 1.55.
In addition, in the worst-case scenario, the experts reckoned that an average of only 230,000 people would be vaccinated every day.
The daily vaccination rate is currently around 150,000 vaccinations per day.
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With a faster course of 350,000 vaccinations per day, an occupancy rate of 12,000 intensive care beds can still be expected in this scenario, explained the Aachen biomedicist Andreas Schuppert, who played a key role in developing the prognosis model.
The doctors pointed out that the staff in the hospitals had already reached or even exceeded the limit.
Another such high occupancy is therefore not responsible.
Solution: 3.5 weeks longer shutdown
The way out: In the event of easing from April 1, the occupancy rate would also increase, but even in the worst case scenario to only up to 6,000 patients, according to the doctors.
This would roughly correspond to the maximum value at the beginning of the year.
It is therefore a matter of "checking the next few weeks," said Schuppert.
If a lower R value of 1.0 is assumed for the virus of origin and 1.35 for mutants, the maximum occupancy of the intensive care beds with a slow vaccination course and relaxation from March 7th would still be up to 4000 according to Divi prognosis, with faster vaccination up to 3000 occupied intensive care beds.
However, Divi expert Christian Karagiannidis pointed out that without a shutdown last October, the R value was well above 1.2, and around 1.2 during the Christmas shopping season in December.
A relaxation three weeks later is decisive because the effect of the vaccinations "precedes the wave of infections".
With openings from March 7th it would be the other way around.
Every vaccination counts
The doctors therefore also urged the vaccination campaign to be promoted.
“So with AstraZeneca too,” said Marx, referring to the acceptance problems for this product (read more here).
A vaccination rate of 80 percent must be achieved by the end of September in order to successfully contain the pandemic.
Divi physician Steffen Weber-Carstens also warned against testing the limits of the resilience of the health system.
It is not only about the number of corona deaths, but also about severe long-term consequences after infections and about many patients who then could not be operated on.
According to Divi, numerous tumor and heart operations are currently being rescheduled that should have taken place in the past few months.
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