The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Covid: Sebastiani (Cnr), in Italy growth similar to that of the UK in December

2021-03-01T16:34:42.928Z


The situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy is comparable to that which was recorded in the United Kingdom in December 2020, when the positive incidence curve showed an exponential growth with a doubling time of 5.2 days (ANSA)


The situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy is comparable to that which was recorded in the United Kingdom in December 2020, when the positive incidence curve showed an exponential growth with a doubling time of 5.2 days.

This is what emerges from the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the 'Mauro Picone' Institute for Calculation Applications of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac).



The mathematician notes that in various Italian regions and provinces there is an exponential growth of the epidemic curve and, in this regard, underlines that "for example, considering the United Kingdom, given any day in the period considered, the value of the curve after 5 days increases twice as much as it increased from five days ago to the current day. "



The analysis reveals a heterogeneous situation, with different trends in the regions and especially at the level of the provinces.

"A possible explanation of this difference - observes the mathematician - lies in the different percentage with which the different variants are probably present locally, which seem to have different diffusion speeds. In particular, it seems that the English variant has a greater diffusivity than that of the variant. prevalent in 2020 ".

The above hypothesis could be validated by epidemiological-genetic studies.



For this reason Sebastiani believes that "in order to limit the spread of the epidemic, I think it is appropriate, where there is an exponential growth, to immediately implement restrictive measures similar to those adopted at the provincial level in Umbria and which have led , after about two weeks, the average curve of intensive care at the regional level to reverse the trend and to have the current trend of decrease ".



"The analysis of the curves of the number of places occupied by Covid-19 patients in the intensive care units at regional level in Italy shows that there are some regions in exponential growth with an average doubling time of 5.8 days, while a smaller number of regions is growing linearly ", Sebastiani notes.

The analysis of the incidence curves of SarsCov2 positives at the provincial level also reveals that "there are provinces in exponential growth, with some that, although belonging to the same region, have very different values ​​of the doubling time".



In February, continues Sebastiani, there was an increase in the intensive care curves of some regions: "the growth is linear in Molise and Tuscany, while it is exponential in Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, Molise and Campania. four, the increases in the curve double every 4.6, 5.2, 6.3 and 6.8 days respectively. With this week's data - he adds - the estimated values ​​will be more accurate.



At the provincial level the analysis is made more complex due to the fact that "unfortunately only the data relating to the incidence of SarsCov2 positives are made public ", continues the mathematician. The analysis conducted on the basis of the available data, involves some provinces of the two regions with the shortest doubling time, namely Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, "The analysis of these curves reveals that there is a large variation in the doubling time.

In fact, the increases in the curve double every 8.3 days for the province of Bergamo and every 4.9 days for that of Milan. "



Similar situation for the province of Bologna (8.1 days) and that of Reggio Emilia (5.4 days). chance, Sebastiani observes, "with this week's data the estimated values ​​will be more accurate".

Source: ansa

All tech articles on 2021-03-01

You may like

Life/Entertain 2024-03-23T05:53:28.309Z
News/Politics 2024-01-30T13:20:35.045Z
Life/Entertain 2024-03-02T06:04:00.659Z

Trends 24h

Tech/Game 2024-03-27T18:05:36.686Z

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.