For about
a quarter
of the
107
Italian
provinces
, the expected value of the incidence of SarsCov2 positives at two weeks exceeds the
threshold value
of
45 new cases per day per 100,000 inhabitants
, if the conditions of the epidemic remain unchanged.
This is indicated by the analysis of the curves of the incidence of positives at the provincial level made by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation 'Mauro Picone' of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac).
The analysis also shows that the provinces form
nine separate groups
: of these, four border on France, Switzerland, Austria and Slovenia;
four are located in the center-south of the country and include three ports with heavy traffic on the Adriatic Sea and one on the Tyrrhenian Sea;
only one group is found in the hinterland of central Italy.
The
resulting
map
indicates, according to Sebastiani, that "in addition to isolating the nine groups as much as possible and minimizing internal flows, from the position of eight of them it is evident the importance of thoroughly testing people entering across borders involved, as well as the ports, and to vaccinate the Italian workers who frequently cross these borders, as well as the maritime personnel of the ports concerned ".
The two-week projection took into account, quantitatively, both the current incidence level and the trend in recent weeks.
"The results show the presence of a large group consisting of
13
connected
provinces
which, starting from that of
Rimini
(65 new cases per day per 100,000 inhabitants), through those of
Forlì-Cesena
(75),
Ravenna
(60),
Ferrara
( 45),
Bologna
(80),
Pistoia
(55),
Modena
(65),
Reggio Emilia
(55),
Mantua
(50),
Cremona
(45),
Brescia
(85) and
Trento
(55) reaches the border with Austria and Switzerland through the autonomous province of
Bolzano
(45) ”, Sebastiani observes.
"In the
North West
- he continues - we find a group of
5
connected provinces bordering France and Switzerland and consisting of
Cuneo
(45),
Turin
(45),
Vercelli
(45),
Pavia
(45) and
Verbano-Cusio-Ossola
(55) .
Then we find a group on the border with Switzerland with two neighboring provinces,
Monza and Brianza
(50) and
Como
(50) ”.
Another group of
2
neighboring provinces,
Udine
(75) and
Gorizia
(55), is located on the border with Slovenia.
Moving to the
Center South
, “we have
2
neighboring provinces on the Adriatic Sea:
Ancona
(75) and
Macerata
850), the first of which has a busy port”, observes the mathematician.
Two other groups with only one province are those of
Pescara
(50) and
Bari
(45), both with ports on the Adriatic.
A group with only one maritime province, that of
Salerno
(45), is located on the Tyrrhenian Sea.
The last group includes only the province of
Frosinone
(45), "the only case of a group within the country".
