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"Ever Given" released again: What will happen to the traffic jam in the Suez Canal?

2021-03-29T19:55:30.904Z


The Suez Canal is clear again, hundreds of ships want to pass through. How can the super jam be resolved from two directions? One thing is certain: it will take a long time - and bring new problems with it.


Enlarge image

Traffic jam at the Suez Canal: How can the rush be resolved?

Photo: Hanaa Habib / REUTERS

After almost a week, the time had finally come: The "Ever Given" that had blocked the Suez Canal was completely free in the afternoon.

This means that one of the most important trade routes in the world can be used again.

But for the time being, the traffic jams remain at the northern and southern approaches to the canal.

A total of around 370 ships are waiting at both entrances

according to the canal authority on the passage through one of the most important bottlenecks in world trade.

How are these snakes supposed to dissolve?

A look at the "Ever Given" shows that this blockade plays in a special league, the freighter alone is 400 meters long.

It cannot be compared with the classic traffic jam on the autobahn, everything is much bigger here, says congestion researcher Michael Schreckenberg from the University of Duisburg-Essen, who says he also deals with international shipping routes.

He gives little hope that the snakes will dissolve quickly.

Because how quickly something like this can succeed depends above all on the acceleration of the vehicles.

And it, the physicist warns, "is very small on cargo ships, so it takes time."

In addition, the minimum distances between ships are much greater because of the long stopping distances.

"In a way, that's the super jam," says Schreckenberg.

Another week of traffic jam

The traffic jam at sea differs from that on a federal highway not only in terms of the size of the objects involved.

A complicating factor is that the passage through the canal is very specifically orchestrated in normal operation.

It is only partially navigable in both directions, the ships pass several meeting points.

"You gather in the evening and drive into the canal in a convoy around four o'clock at night, the fastest and largest ships ahead," explains Christian Denso from the Association of German Shipowners (VDR).

The journey through the 193-kilometer-long and around 300-meter-wide canal then takes around twelve hours.

"Normally 50 ships pass through the canal every day," explains Denso.

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Traffic jam from the bird's eye view: Ships wait south of the Suez Canal

Photo: Maxar Technologies / REUTERS

In comparison to the problem, this results in a simple calculation: With 50 ships per day, it takes around a week for the waiting ships to pass.

Traffic jam researcher Schreckenberg also reckons it will take four to seven days for the traffic jam to dissipate.

The Danish shipping company Maersk assumes six or more days.

This cannot be precisely predicted.

There are always new ships that have to line up behind.

Crews on site, the shipping companies, but also the companies that are urgently waiting for raw materials and goods, have to be patient.

In this situation, should certain freighters be allowed to travel through the canal first?

Or will they just pass the bottleneck in the order in which they arrived at the canal?

Because not only containers and bulk goods are waiting for the passage.

Eleven Romanian freighters with 130,000 sheep on board are said to be stuck due to the "Ever Given" debacle.

Animal rights activists fear that the sheep could perish.

According to the Romanian veterinary authorities, there is enough food and water on board for the coming days.

"Ships with living cargo should now be prioritized," says Denso, spokesman for the shipping association.

Otherwise he sees few problems.

Although there is perishable freight on container ships, the cooling means that a few days would not matter.

Most of the cargo is not critical, says Denso.

"In the end, it doesn't matter whether the car door is left on the ship for a week longer, at least as far as the quality of the door is concerned."

However, the economic damage caused by such delays is enormous.

According to the BBC, the clogged channel was holding goods worth $ 9.6 billion a day.

If, however, shipping companies and authorities were to argue about which ship is the most important and should therefore enjoy right of way, that would only complicate the situation further.

Driving around the outside is hardly an option

Apparently, the detour via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa is not an option.

The tour takes six to ten days longer, explains VDR spokesman Denso, and the ships consume more fuel accordingly.

The route is only economical if the fuel costs are below the canal fee.

"The passage costs an average of 300,000 US dollars, and it is currently not worth driving around for an average container ship," Denso calculates.

This question parallels traffic jams - those who are already in a mess can hardly get out.

In this case, this means: For those who are already in the Mediterranean or the Red Sea, the detour is no longer worthwhile despite the traffic jam, says Denso.

If you want to bypass the Suez Canal, you should plan it early, "before Gibraltar or in the Indian Ocean" - as some shipping companies have apparently done.

If all ships may have crossed the canal this coming weekend, there is a risk of further delays.

Then, according to VDR man Denso, there could be a “ketchup bottle effect” in the ports: At first nothing comes, then way too much all at once.

"In Hamburg, container ships of this class are already putting 3,000 containers on the quay," says Denso.

A train can move 80 containers at once.

He therefore warns of traffic jams in the ports, which are already very full in Northern Europe.

This situation will now get worse - but not all companies will hit equally hard.

»Some shipping companies have their own terminals, for example MSC in Antwerp.

They will certainly now prefer to handle their own ships «, says Denso.

However, it will only be possible to see in a few days how strong the traffic jam is affecting Europe's ports.

A ship needs ten days from the Suez Canal to Hamburg.

"Only then will we be able to quantify the damage to the shipping companies and the rest of the economy," explains Denso.

The blockage in the Suez Canal has impressively shown how vulnerable global trade routes are despite modern technology.

In a sense, the world economy was still lucky in disaster because there are no locks on the passage.

In the Panama Canal, on the other hand, it does - a similar incident there could have more serious consequences, says traffic jam researcher Schreckenberg.

"A blockade there would lead to a significantly worse backwater."

With material from dpa

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-03-29

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