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Corona crisis: Researchers expect fewer infections


The nationwide incidence has fallen below 160 for the first time in a long time - according to several scientists, the number of infections will hardly rise.

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Protective mask in Stuttgart: what's next in the pandemic?

Photo: Tom Weller / dpa

The vaccinations in Germany are progressing and the Lockdown Light is also having an effect.

But what could a medium-term scenario for the country look like?

Numerous scientists have now given a comparatively positive forecast for the further course of the pandemic in Germany.

The number of infections would therefore hardly increase.

"I no longer expect an increase, but also not a rapid decrease," said mobility researcher Kai Nagel from the TU Berlin at a hearing in the parliamentary advisory committee for the Covid-19 pandemic of the Bundestag.

Physicist Viola Priesemann from the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization was more optimistic.

Incidences well below 50, like last summer, are likely to be reached in the next few weeks, she said.

The main reason for this is the vaccination progress.

As on the previous days, the incidence continued to fall on Thursday and was most recently at 154.9 (previous day 160.6).

The value indicates how many people per 100,000 inhabitants have been infected with the corona virus in the past seven days.

A total of four scientists answered questions from the MPs.

Eva Grill, President of the German Society for Epidemiology, advised mobile vaccination teams for socially disadvantaged parts of the city or district.

You have to bring this service to the people in order to reach them, she said.

It is helpful to include people who enjoy recognition in neighborhoods.

In general, it is also good to keep handing out masks there and to make wearing them a habit.

As a concept, mobility researcher Nagel suggested certifications for suitable interiors depending on their use.

He also advocated the establishment of social norms - for example, doing quick tests as a nice gesture before private meetings.

Big events in particular remain a risk

Epidemiologist Gérard Krause from the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research sees the ban on major events as the greatest single effect of protective measures beyond vaccinations.

In comparison, everything else only has about half the protective effect, he said.

With today's knowledge, however, differentiations are possible.

With clear concepts, smaller outdoor events are possible.

That also works in large halls with high ceilings - but few people.

There was also little objection to outdoor catering with concepts for him.

For indoor catering, however, the risk of infection remains too high.

jok / dpa

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-05-03

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