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Climate forecast: The world is heading for 2.4 degrees warming by 2100


The Climate Action Tracker feeds climate data from many countries into a model and forecasts the course of global warming. The latest calculations show a bleak picture.

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It will probably not be enough what the world community currently wants to do to limit global warming. If all climate protection measures taken so far are implemented as planned, global warming will be 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times - and thus well above the desired 1.5 degree target. This is the result of the latest forecasts from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis project, which climate researcher Niklas Höhne and Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD) presented in Berlin.

As part of the 12th Petersberg Climate Dialogue, Höhne presented the latest projections, which assume a slightly more optimistic scenario than the last one, but would nevertheless be insufficient from the researchers' point of view to reduce global warming to the desired level. If no further measures were taken to contain climate change from now on, the forecast temperature in 2100 would even be 2.9 degrees above the pre-industrial level. In an optimistic scenario with far-reaching emission reduction measures, the warming would be 2.0 degrees according to the calculations.

131 states have currently set goals to become climate neutral, said Höhne.

That covers 73 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and is a clearly critical mass.

However, in order to fully meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the temperature rise would have to be a maximum of 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.

According to the findings based on the Climate Action Tracker, all global emissions would have to be halved by 2030.

At the moment it doesn't look like it, said Höhne, even if it were physically and technically possible.

"There is a huge gap between claim and reality," says the professor at Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

Not a single country sets itself sufficient short-term climate targets

It is gratifying that countries such as the USA, Great Britain and Argentina have set themselves more ambitious climate targets. Others, including Australia and Brazil, would fall well short of expectations. So far, not a single country has set sufficient short-term reduction targets, the scientist concluded.

The Climate Action Tracker bundles the climate protection efforts of the individual countries and feeds them into a climate model.

From this, global warming will be accumulated by the end of this century.

The service developed by Höhne usually presents the forecast in the form of a thermometer. Ministers from various countries who deal with questions of climate change meet annually at the Petersberg Climate Dialogues.

The conference traditionally serves to prepare for the next UN climate conference.

joe / dpa

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-05-04

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