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Suesca Lake in Colombia partially dried out in February 2021
Photo: Juan David Moreno Gallego / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
According to a forecast by the World Weather Organization (WMO), this or one of the next four years could break the record for the global average temperature.
The probability of this is 90 percent, reports the UN organization in Geneva, citing analyzes by the British weather service Met Office.
The previous record was reached in 2016.
At that time, the average global surface temperature was around 1.2 degrees above the average level from 1850 to 1900. The years 2019 and 2020 were practically the same.
The ten years from 2011 to 2020 were the warmest decade.
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It is even possible that one of the five years from 2021 to 2025 will reach a value of 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level.
The probability for this is currently 40 percent.
Accordingly, the chance that the value will not be reached for the time being is a little greater than that it will be achieved.
But the risk grows.
According to the Paris Climate Agreement, the international community is actually aiming for an increase of 1.5 degrees as the upper limit by the end of the century.
More extreme weather, greater ice melt
The consequences of the rise in temperature differ from region to region.
According to the new WMO forecast, the current year will be drier in southwest North America than the average for the years 1981 to 2010, while Australia and the Sahel region south of the Sahara in Africa will be more humid.
In the period 2021-2025, it will be warmer in all regions - except in parts of the southern oceans and the North Atlantic - than the average for the years 1981 to 2010, according to the forecast.
There will likely be more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
"These are not just statistics," said WMO General Secretary Petteri Taalas.
"Higher temperatures mean greater ice melt, higher sea levels, more heat waves and other extreme weather conditions, as well as negative consequences for food security, health, the environment and sustainable development." He called on all countries to reduce climate-damaging greenhouse gases faster than planned.
jme / dpa
