The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Green energy for electricity and heat: The complete energy transition by 2030 is possible

2021-05-29T13:41:54.477Z


Germany can convert its electricity and heat generation entirely to renewable energies within nine years. That is the result of a new study - which, however, lists many uncertainties.


Enlarge image

Construction of a wind turbine near Ludwigsdorf, near Görlitz

Photo: Florian Gaertner / Photothek / Getty Images

As early as 2030 - and thus much earlier than planned by the federal government - the energy supply in Germany could come from 100 percent renewable energies. This is the result of a new study by the Berlin think tank Energy Watch Group (EWG), which is available to SPIEGEL. According to this, it is not only possible to cover the electricity demand with sun, wind, water, biomass and geothermal energy, but also to feed the heat supply from purely green sources.

According to the study, the greatest potential for the conversion is the expansion of photovoltaics and wind power - even if a mixture of many different sustainable forms of technology is ultimately required. According to the three authors Thure Traber and Hans-Josef Fell from the EEC and Franziska Simone Hegner from the Technical University of Munich, the decisive factor in Germany is the expansion of wind energy. Especially in the southern federal states, he had come to a standstill. However, there is potential here, especially in the low mountain ranges. "With good concepts, wind turbines can also be installed in natural areas in the mountains," believes Fell.

In the study, the authors outline three different scenarios of how Germany could be supplied with 100 percent renewable energies by 2030.

The starting point was that sufficient electricity would be available all year round and that so-called dark doldrums could be bridged with too little wind and sun.

  • In scenario I, the study assumes that there will

    be no wind power expansion

    in southern Germany.

  • In scenario II,

    only 50 percent of

    the potential is used there

    .

  • And scenario III assumes an expansion of wind power in the south, which

    exhausts

    the

    entire potential

    , which is estimated at 37 gigawatts.

Accordingly, the study examines the consequences of the respective scenarios for the remaining sectors. For example, in the first scenario, the expansion of the grids would have to be significantly increased so that electricity can flow from the wind farms in the north to the south. If, on the other hand, more wind farms are built in the south as in scenario three, the need for new networks roughly corresponds to the projects currently being planned and built. The required photovoltaic systems are also influenced by progress in wind power.

If there is no more wind power in the south, more must be invested in the expansion of solar energy. In any case, the annual growth estimated in the study for building and open space photovoltaics is very high with a total of 85 gigawatts per year. But in the first scenario it would have to reach 120 gigawatts in order to achieve zero emissions in Germany in the entire energy sector in 2030. The industry is currently unable to constantly increase such quantities annually, the authors admit. But with a little advance notice, a faster expansion is possible in the second half of the decade.

There is also a need for more speed in storage technology.

The following applies here: the more wind energy is lacking in the south, the higher the need for heat, pump or battery storage.

With the entire use of wind power as in Scenario III, around 20 terawatt hours of storage capacity would have to be added.

If you do without the power of the wind in the south, the need for storage rises by 50 percent.

They would then have to be built mainly in the southern federal states.

Wind and solar energy will be 80 percent in 2030

Overall, the experts assume that wind and solar energy will cover around 80 percent of demand in 2030. However, numerous other things have to be implemented for the 2030 target. This includes an increase in building renovations in order to achieve better thermal insulation. Currently the rate is one percent, according to the study it should be six in 2030. The experts also see a lot of potential for saving energy in the transport sector, in particular in the redesign of freight transport or the expansion of local public transport networks as well as increased use of bicycles and electric cars.

However, the study has some limitations. The potential of geothermal energy has to be reassessed, as the chances of success of a number of ongoing projects are sometimes difficult to assess. In addition, some important sectors such as cement production and the metal and chemical industries, each of which has a high energy demand, were not taken into account in the study, the authors write.

After all, in the best case scenario, switching to renewable energies would probably not lead to more costs than it does today. The total annual costs for energy are between 155 billion (scenario III) and 191 billion euros (scenario I). In the cheaper third scenario, the LCOE would be at a similar level per megawatt hour as in 2018, despite high investments. "This is mainly due to the fact that Germany does not have to buy any cost-intensive raw materials such as crude oil or gas," says Hans-Josef Fell. The EWG founder played a key role in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) for the Greens - it was recently revised.

But Fell admits that a hundred percent quota by 2030 can only be achieved with a gigantic, 20-fold increase in the rate of expansion of renewable energies.

Such a rapid transformation has only seldom occurred in world history, for example with the introduction of the Internet and mobile communications.

However, the restructuring of the energy system is the "essential and indispensable emergency brake" in order to meet the 1.5-degree target of the Paris climate agreement, according to Fell.

Overall, the Energy Watch Group's paper is an assessment of the options with some uncertainty.

However, it shows that a rapid energy transition is technically possible in principle - at least if all the framework conditions are right.

joe

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-05-29

You may like

News/Politics 2024-03-15T17:06:08.189Z
News/Politics 2024-02-21T09:21:17.769Z

Trends 24h

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.