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Scrapped cars: is the end of the internal combustion engine coming sooner than expected?
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Photo: stockstudioX / iStockphoto / Getty Images
Diesel, Benz, Beetle and also Trabant - the passenger car with internal combustion engine is an important part of German self-confidence. It is a symbol of the reconstruction after the Second World War, the freedom to just get in and drive off - and the subject of heated discussions. Regardless of whether it is speed limits, diesel driving bans or the elimination of car lanes in favor of cycling, almost every citizen has an opinion on cars. And this discussion is likely to get even more heated in the next few years.
Because the farewell to the combustion engine has already begun.
It is true that Germany - after all, European champions in car production - does not have a set date to phase out diesel and gasoline engines.
But no sector has more catching up to do in terms of climate protection than transport.
In 2020, 146 million tonnes of CO₂ were generated here; according to the draft of the new climate protection law, this value should drop by 43 percent by 2030.
In 2045, German greenhouse gas emissions are expected to drop to zero.
Burners only as a collector's item
The law could ensure an early end to new car registrations with gasoline or diesel engines - and fuel the already existing electric boom. Because the service life of an average car in Germany is around 15 years, explains Jens Burchardt, climate expert at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). "If you need a CO2-neutral vehicle fleet by 2045, new cars will have to be essentially fully electrified by 2030, with the exception of individual collector's vehicles," says Burchardt.
With exceptions such as the Porsche 911 or Ferrari supercars, the combustion engine would be history for new cars in nine years.
And all of this without an officially announced exit date, as other countries have already decided.
For example, Spain, Europe's number two in terms of the number of cars produced, has given gasoline and diesel an expiry date; from 2050, combustion engines will no longer be allowed to drive there.
The period until 2030 becomes a problem
Germany, on the other hand, chooses a quiet farewell without an appointment.
The environmental organization Transport & Environment also sees the law as the last nail in the coffin for petrol and diesel, explains Germany Director Stef Cornelis.
"In theory, the new climate law means phasing out combustion engines by 2035 at the latest, or earlier."
The real challenge, however, is not the expiration date, but the way to get there.
And that begins now in the product planning of the automotive industry at the latest - with all the uncertainties about the best alternative to diesel and gasoline engines.
For Eric Heymann, economist at Deutsche Bank, there is no fixed, final end date for the internal combustion engine from the new climate targets.
“In ten years it could become clear whether it is still needed in the passenger car sector and for which applications,” says Heymann.
Much more important are cuts in the near future.
"It's less about restrictions in 2045, but rather by 2030," says Heymann.
In order to achieve the goals, the economist warns, "the state would have to make individual mobility much more expensive or massively restrict it with regulatory measures."
E-cars alone are not enough
The goal of reducing emissions in this sector by 43 percent is ambitious. "The new climate targets mean that the CO2 limit values for vehicles must drop by at least 50 percent by 2030," says Claudia Kemfert from the German Institute for Economic Research. To this end, rail transport should be massively promoted, the charging infrastructure should be expanded, but digitalization should also be advanced. At the same time, the number of cars in cities must be significantly reduced and car traffic avoided altogether or shifted to the railways.
In order to weaken such interventions in people's mobility, many more e-cars would have to come onto the streets even faster.
Even if more than half of all new registrations were electric by 2025 and the new vehicle fleet were largely electrified in 2030, "that would still not be enough to achieve the new sector target for 2030," says BCG expert Burchardt.
Because the diesels and petrol engines currently driving around will hardly disappear by then, on the contrary - the average car in this country is getting older and older.
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Even if only fully electric cars will hit the streets in 2030, citizens will probably have to drive fewer cars overall. "In order to achieve the goals, society would have to change its behavior in traffic massively," explains economist Heymann. The measures required for this, such as a toll, significantly rising fuel prices or a speed limit, for which the SPD has now also spoken out, would most likely be associated with bitter resistance from some motorists.
What this can mean has already been observed in recent weeks: Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock had repeated her party's goal of increasing the price of gasoline in several steps by 16 cents. But although this plan largely coincides with the long-established plan of the grand coalition and some of it has already been implemented, the petrol frenzy boiled up - fueled by politicians from Union, through the SPD to the left. The Greens' old demand to distribute the additional tax money collected primarily to low-income citizens was completely lost.
BCG climate expert Burchardt sees a fundamental alternative to driving restrictions and higher prices.
One could also "bring considerably more green fuels onto the market." With this, the climate law could give the controversial fuels produced with the help of electricity, so-called e-fuels, a new boost.
So far, Federal Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer (CSU) and lobby organizations of the auto industry have been promoting this technology - but this is divided when it comes to e-fuels.
For example, Porsche is planning to use synthetic fuels, while the parent company Volkswagen considers them to be "massively overrated" and relies on battery vehicles.
Battery car unstoppable
So far, however, there has been no large-scale production of e-fuels, larger projects only start in the middle of the decade - and the origin of the necessary CO₂ is also controversial.
Although separating CO₂ from the air is considered a climate-friendly option for producing carbon for e-fuels, it consumes a lot of energy.
At the same time, they are no alternative to electrification, warns BCG expert Burchardt.
"But we need them in order to get the CO2 emissions in the transport sector to zero." That applies anyway to aircraft and ships, but also to the remaining combustion engines in the vehicle fleet, if they don't just want to expropriate them by 2045.
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Meanwhile, the battery car seems unstoppable.
The fuel cell, next to e-fuels, another hope for battery skeptics, can apparently no longer interfere here.
BCG expert Burchardt expects the battery car to prevail regardless of the regulatory approach.
On the one hand, because a hydrogen car consumes around 2.5 times as much electricity per kilometer - and much more money is currently being invested in the development of battery technology, compared to the fuel cell "at least at a ratio of 50: 1".
Reselling a combustion engine will be difficult from 2025
The likelihood that many people's next new car will be an electric car - or at least the last combustion engine - is increasing. Because when buying a new combustion engine, the resale value will come under pressure from 2025, warns BCG expert Burchardt. »At the moment, people fear that they will get rid of an e-car on the used market more difficultly than a combustion engine. That will be reversed. ”At the same time, battery prices will continue to fall and e-cars will be able to keep up with combustion engines in terms of purchase price. "From 2027 onwards, electric cars will be cheaper than combustion engines," explains T&E Director Cornelis, "with this the question of phasing out combustion engines for cars has been partially resolved."
Nevertheless, many people will probably not just want to put up with saying goodbye to their beloved petrol or diesel - while lobbyists in the auto industry will try to keep their current business model alive for as long as possible. "The guidelines are extremely explosive politically," says economist Heymann with certainty. One thing seems certain: gasoline and diesel will not say goodbye as quietly as it was decided to slowly end the combustion engine.
