While we thought we were safe from an epidemic resumption during the summer, the prospect of seeing an explosion of severe cases as early as August can no longer be ruled out.
The rate of transmission of the virus, the effective R, calculated on daily contaminations is now estimated between 1.5 and 2, when the projections of the Institut Pasteur envisaged in their most pessimistic scenarios a recovery with an R of 1.3 .
Henceforth, each infected person infects nearly two others.
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The number of cases is doubling every five days, a level not measured in the country since the start of the first wave.
“Outside of March 2020 we measured two peaks at 1.3, in August 2020 and in October 2020,
recalls Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier.
This record increase is explained by the Delta variant, but also by the lifting of the last restrictive measures on June 30. ”
The fourth wave is
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