Enlarge image
According to the RKI, travel and the conditions under which it takes place are of particular importance for the infection process
Photo: Arne Dedert / dpa
The number of corona infections in Germany is currently relatively low, but has been growing significantly for more than two weeks.
On July 8, the seven-day incidence was still 5.2, a week later it was 8.0 - in the meantime it has already returned to 12.2.
Chancellor Angela Merkel warned of another deterioration in the situation in view of the exponentially growing number of infections.
What will happen in the coming weeks, what will happen in autumn and winter?
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) assumes a further increase in the number of corona infections.
This emerges from a paper published on Thursday in which the RKI also formulates recommendations for preparation and prevention for autumn and winter.
With the increasing vaccination rates, Germany is in the transition phase from pandemic to endemic, writes the institute.
When this transition will be completed cannot yet be precisely predicted.
If a virus is endemic, it means that it will no longer go away and that infections will recur in that region of the world at certain times.
A pandemic, on the other hand, is a disease that spreads rapidly around the world.
More contacts again
The RKI estimates that herd immunity in the sense of complete eradication of the virus is not realistic.
There are various reasons for the possible increase in the number of infections.
This includes, among other things, that people have more contacts again and that places where there is a higher probability of transmission are reopened.
However, a possible reduction in vaccination effectiveness, for example due to dwindling immunity among older people and the associated need for booster vaccinations, may also play a role, as well as the spread of new variants with higher transferability.
According to the RKI, the "currently relaxed infection situation" should now be used "to prepare preventive measures for autumn and winter so that the number of serious illnesses, deaths and the burden on the health system can be kept small and population-related measures can be minimized."
Among other things, it is important to achieve the highest possible vaccination rate.
Because it is currently unclear how long the protection through a vaccination will last, according to the RKI, possible booster vaccinations for the elderly and risk groups should already be planned and prepared.
The nursing and health system and educational institutions should also prepare for possible increasing numbers of infections.
According to the paper, the population should be informed »at an early stage that there could be a heavy burden on the health system again in winter« and possibly a regional or local overload, for example with the so-called ECMO capacity (special machines for patients with severe lung failure) .
Basic measures remain important
The RKI experts generally recommend that the basic protective measures should be adhered to until spring: Especially when people at risk are present, a mask should be worn indoors, for example in local public transport, kept at a distance, ventilated and hygiene should be observed as well as the Corona warning app can be used.
The paper also states that the number of "infectious contacts" should be further reduced through organizational measures such as the possibility of mobile working and participant restrictions for events.
mar / afp / dpa
